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UNM
New Mexico
LobosRun-HeavyMountain West Conference3-9#130 (-12.86)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
3· FOverall
Offense
0· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
0· FBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
71· BPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.227
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.302
Defensive EPA/play
-0.057
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.0%
Def Success Rate
44.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.246
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.82
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.31
own return game
Return Defense
-0.68
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#130
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#119
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 58 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense1th
Opp-adjusted defense56th
Offensive EPA/play2th
Defensive EPA/play71th
Offensive success rate2th
Explosiveness0th
Defensive havoc29th
Points per drive1th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4562Akron2023OA -0.232 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3903Colorado State2022OA -0.168 / -0.033similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3884UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3875Wisconsin2025OA -0.142 / +0.127similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense385
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Houston Christian | 27-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs New Mexico State | 34-25 | W | -20.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Texas A&M | 0-34 | L | +30.0 | L | 50 | U |
| 4 | @ UTEP | 13-20 | L | -2.0 | L | 54 | U |
| 5 | vs Air Force | 10-38 | L | +11.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 6 | @ San Diego State | 7-31 | L | +19.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Colorado State | 7-36 | L | +10.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Wyoming | 14-3 | W | +19.5 | W | 40.5 | U |
| 10 | vs UNLV | 17-31 | L | -2.0 | L | 45 | O |
| 11 | @ Fresno State | 7-34 | L | +24.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 12 | @ Boise State | 0-37 | L | +15.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Utah State | 10-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-10
9.1%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS0-5
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS1-7
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.258 | 2th | -0.071 | 77th |
| Red Zone | -0.686 | 2th | -0.038 | 50th |
| Third Down | -0.277 | 5th | +0.019 | 65th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.288 | 1th | -0.060 | 71th |
| First Half | -0.244 | 2th | +0.030 | 36th |
| Second Half | -0.271 | 2th | -0.171 | 93th |
| Early Downs | -0.187 | 5th | -0.091 | 80th |
| Passing Downs | -0.320 | 1th | -0.049 | 65th |
| Standard Downs | -0.217 | 5th | -0.083 | 75th |
| Goal to Go | -0.329 | 11th | +0.096 | 35th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.6%Rush 64.4%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
8.2
Yards/Game
234.2
Pts/Drive
0.82
3rd Down%
25.4%
3&Out%
32.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | New Mexico | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 146 | 341 |
| Points / Game | 12.2 | 28.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 165 | 224 |
| Rushing | 87 | 99 |
| Passing | 58 | 101 |
| Penalty | 20 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 467 | 465 |
| Yards | 1,444 | 1,716 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 120.3 | 143.0 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 258 | 351 |
| Completions | 141 | 196 |
| Completion % | 54.7% | 55.8% |
| Yards | 1,366 | 2,641 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 105.71 | 131.78 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 725 | 816 |
| Yards | 2,810 | 4,357 |
| Yards / Play | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 234.2 | 363.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 25 |
| Yards | 198 | 250 |
| Average | 11.6 | 10.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 41 | 13 |
| Yards | 993 | 280 |
| Average | 24.2 | 21.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 83 | 59 |
| Yards | 3,466 | 2,659 |
| Average | 41.8 | 45.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 8 |
| Yards | 24 | 72 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 11 |
| Lost | 12 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 73 |
| Yards | 685 | 662 |
| Yards / Game | 57.1 | 55.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:52 | 30:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 174 |
| Conversions | 43 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 25.4% | 37.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 15 |
| Conversions | 7 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 73.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 26 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 16 | 36 |
| Score % | 61.5% | 90.0% |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 23 |
| TD % | 38.5% | 57.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 28 |
| Made | 9 | 22 |
| Pct | 64.3% | 78.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 39 |
| Made | 17 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.