Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference0-1#138 (-21.61)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

0· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
10· FPer play
35· DConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
43· CPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.122
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.234
Defensive EPA/play
-0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
36.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.207
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.42

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.98
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
0th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
10th
Defensive EPA/play
43th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
45th
Defensive havoc
18th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2021OA -0.103 / -0.001similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3372UTEP2020OA -0.025 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate3253Georgia Tech2020OA -0.026 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3124Washington State2026OA -0.023 / +0.025similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3065Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate306

2026 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Idaho State17-29L-14.0L62.5U
2@ Washington------
3@ Utah------
4vs Troy------
5@ Boise State------
6vs Washington State------
8@ Texas State------
9vs Colorado State------
10vs Fresno State------
11@ San Diego State------
12@ Oregon State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off8thRed Zone Off17th3rd Down Off84thPass Def15thRush Def72thRed Zone Def55th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2349th-0.02743th
Red Zone-0.32917th-0.18355th
Third Down+0.67484th+0.29023th
No Garbage Time-0.23411th-0.02743th
First Half-0.13726th+0.09724th
Second Half-0.30511th-0.22869th
Early Downs-0.2897th-0.24174th
Passing Downs-0.13133th+0.38315th
Standard Downs-0.2908th-0.24772th
Goal to Go-0.5996th-0.29174th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.0%Rush 50.0%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
12.1%
TO Margin
-4.0
Explosive/G
20.0
Yards/Game
407.0
Pts/Drive
1.42
3rd Down%
60.0%
3&Out%
8.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points1729
Points / Game17.029.0
First Downs
Total2914
Rushing84
Passing167
Penalty53
Rushing
Attempts4430
Yards16289
Yards / Carry3.73.0
Yards / Game162.089.0
Touchdowns01
Passing
Attempts4433
Completions2018
Completion %45.5%54.5%
Yards245152
Yards / Attempt5.64.6
Touchdowns21
Interceptions40
Passer Rating89.05103.24
Total Offense
Plays8863
Yards407241
Yards / Play4.63.8
Yards / Game407.0241.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards210
Average10.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns30
Yards530
Average17.7—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts14
Yards44155
Average44.038.8
Interception Returns
Returns04
Yards070
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties118
Yards8371
Yards / Game83.071.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:3326:27
Third Downs
Attempts1515
Conversions95
Conversion %60.0%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts41
Conversions11
Conversion %25.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips44
Scores (TD + FG)34
Score %75.0%100.0%
Touchdowns22
TD %50.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts25
Made15
Pct50.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts22
Made22
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →