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NU
Northwestern
WildcatsRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference3-9#69 (-1.51)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
49· COverall
Offense
10· FRating
3· FPer play
7· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
78· BPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.147
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.092
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.199
Defensive EPA/play
-0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.9%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.104
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.241
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.16
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#69
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#60
recruiting 9 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense7th
Opp-adjusted defense83th
Offensive EPA/play3th
Defensive EPA/play79th
Offensive success rate13th
Explosiveness1th
Defensive havoc58th
Points per drive2th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Duke2019OA -0.121 / +0.112similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3862Northern Illinois2018OA -0.095 / +0.071similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, havoc rate3823Nebraska2023OA -0.116 / +0.124similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3794New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3755Wisconsin2025OA -0.142 / +0.127similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA369
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Stanford | 7-17 | L | +6.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 3 | vs UNLV | 30-14 | W | -18.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 4 | vs Michigan State | 10-31 | L | +7.5 | L | 35 | O |
| 5 | @ Wisconsin | 15-24 | L | +23.0 | W | 46 | U |
| 6 | @ Nebraska | 10-13 | L | +7.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Ohio State | 3-52 | L | +26.5 | L | 50 | O |
| 9 | vs Iowa | 0-20 | L | +7.5 | L | 35.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Indiana | 3-34 | L | +8.5 | L | 44 | U |
| 11 | vs Purdue | 22-24 | L | 0.0 | L | 38.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Massachusetts | 45-6 | W | -38.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Minnesota | 22-38 | L | +16.5 | W | 41.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Illinois | 29-10 | W | +6.5 | W | 39 | P |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7-1
36.4%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.180 | 4th | -0.096 | 83th |
| Red Zone | -0.060 | 46th | +0.118 | 17th |
| Third Down | -0.115 | 22th | -0.057 | 69th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.195 | 1th | -0.097 | 81th |
| First Half | -0.180 | 4th | -0.007 | 53th |
| Second Half | -0.179 | 7th | -0.184 | 99th |
| Early Downs | -0.177 | 6th | -0.141 | 94th |
| Passing Downs | -0.186 | 7th | -0.044 | 59th |
| Standard Downs | -0.175 | 4th | -0.127 | 90th |
| Goal to Go | +0.123 | 73th | +0.315 | 6th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.1%Rush 62.9%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
297.1
Pts/Drive
1.16
3rd Down%
35.8%
3&Out%
24.3%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northwestern | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 196 | 283 |
| Points / Game | 16.3 | 23.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 212 | 211 |
| Rushing | 109 | 81 |
| Passing | 76 | 108 |
| Penalty | 27 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 530 | 436 |
| Yards | 2,161 | 1,643 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 180.1 | 136.9 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 312 | 360 |
| Completions | 156 | 220 |
| Completion % | 50.0% | 61.1% |
| Yards | 1,404 | 2,385 |
| Yards / Attempt | 4.5 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 84.53 | 128.46 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 842 | 796 |
| Yards | 3,565 | 4,028 |
| Yards / Play | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 297.1 | 335.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 17 |
| Yards | 174 | 48 |
| Average | 8.3 | 2.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 29 |
| Yards | 374 | 588 |
| Average | 20.8 | 20.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 69 |
| Yards | 2,663 | 2,869 |
| Average | 37.5 | 41.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 15 |
| Yards | 47 | 150 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 17 |
| Lost | 9 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 73 |
| Yards | 582 | 681 |
| Yards / Game | 48.5 | 56.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:03 | 29:44 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 193 | 180 |
| Conversions | 69 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 35.8% | 40.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 13 |
| Conversions | 11 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 39.3% | 38.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 24 | 35 |
| Score % | 77.4% | 83.3% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 25 |
| TD % | 51.6% | 59.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 22 |
| Made | 10 | 15 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 68.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 34 |
| Made | 18 | 34 |
| Pct | 94.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.