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DUKE
Duke
Blue DevilsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference5-7#37 (+7.35)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
72· BOverall
Offense
50· CRating
6· FPer play
6· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
80· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
11· F3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.121
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.112
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.180
Defensive EPA/play
-0.104
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.5%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.077
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.32
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#41
model 4 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense10th
Opp-adjusted defense89th
Offensive EPA/play6th
Defensive EPA/play81th
Offensive success rate6th
Explosiveness10th
Defensive havoc69th
Points per drive25th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Buffalo2025OA -0.180 / -0.001similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4502Rutgers2022OA -0.152 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense4153Northwestern2019OA -0.147 / +0.092similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3864Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3815Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, defensive EPA372
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Alabama | 3-42 | L | +33.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 2 | vs North Carolina A&T | 45-13 | W | -27.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 3 | @ Middle Tennessee | 41-18 | W | -6.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 5 | @ Virginia Tech | 45-10 | W | +2.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Pittsburgh | 30-33 | L | -3.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Georgia Tech | 41-23 | W | -17.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Virginia | 14-48 | L | +3.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 9 | @ North Carolina | 17-20 | L | +2.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Notre Dame | 7-38 | L | +7.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 12 | vs Syracuse | 6-49 | L | -8.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Wake Forest | 27-39 | L | +7.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Miami | 27-17 | W | +9.0 | W | 44.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.179 | 4th | -0.039 | 69th |
| Red Zone | -0.072 | 40th | +0.062 | 32th |
| Third Down | -0.196 | 11th | -0.036 | 66th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.181 | 4th | -0.080 | 75th |
| First Half | -0.167 | 7th | -0.101 | 80th |
| Second Half | -0.192 | 6th | +0.031 | 34th |
| Early Downs | -0.210 | 3th | -0.020 | 60th |
| Passing Downs | -0.122 | 19th | -0.118 | 84th |
| Standard Downs | -0.215 | 1th | +0.005 | 49th |
| Goal to Go | +0.044 | 58th | +0.025 | 41th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
20.1%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
329.7
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
33.2%
3&Out%
27.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Duke | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 303 | 350 |
| Points / Game | 25.3 | 29.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 224 | 232 |
| Rushing | 101 | 110 |
| Passing | 102 | 101 |
| Penalty | 21 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 495 | 499 |
| Yards | 1,804 | 2,167 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 150.3 | 180.6 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 378 | 353 |
| Completions | 213 | 185 |
| Completion % | 56.3% | 52.4% |
| Yards | 2,152 | 2,388 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.7 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 112.48 | 123.77 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 873 | 852 |
| Yards | 3,956 | 4,555 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 329.7 | 379.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 20 |
| Yards | 231 | 193 |
| Average | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 30 |
| Yards | 923 | 629 |
| Average | 24.9 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 68 |
| Yards | 3,018 | 2,646 |
| Average | 45.0 | 38.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 14 |
| Yards | 88 | 192 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 15 |
| Lost | 14 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 63 | 68 |
| Yards | 544 | 619 |
| Yards / Game | 45.3 | 51.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:02 | 30:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 193 | 183 |
| Conversions | 64 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 33.2% | 37.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 21 |
| Conversions | 20 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 60.6% | 52.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 32 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 38 |
| Score % | 90.6% | 84.4% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 27 |
| TD % | 59.4% | 60.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 20 |
| Made | 15 | 17 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 85.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 40 |
| Made | 34 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.