Fourth Down Data
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RUTG

Rutgers

Scarlet KnightsBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#95 (-2.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
5· FRating
5· FPer play
10· FConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
78· BPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.152
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.259
Defensive EPA/play
-0.096
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.4%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.163
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.070
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.40
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#95
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#119
model 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#44
recruiting 51 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
78th
Offensive EPA/play
5th
Defensive EPA/play
79th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
3th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Duke2019OA -0.121 / +0.112similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense4152Massachusetts2022OA -0.194 / -0.080similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense4083Central Michigan2018OA -0.237 / +0.049similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3954Houston2024OA -0.071 / +0.033similar: pass defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3945Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense369

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Boston College22-21W+7.0W48U
2vs Wagner66-7W----
3@ Temple16-14W-18.0L43.5U
4vs Iowa10-27L+7.5L34O
5@ Ohio State10-49L+40.0W59P
6vs Nebraska13-14L----
8vs Indiana24-17W-3.0W48U
9@ Minnesota0-31L+14.0L40.5U
10vs Michigan17-52L+26.5L45O
11@ Michigan State21-27L+10.0W40.5O
12vs Penn State10-55L+19.0L45O
13@ Maryland0-37L+14.0L49U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-6-1
40.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off17thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off1thPass Def91thRush Def39thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2463th-0.07171th
Red Zone-0.14124th+0.22810th
Third Down-0.5541th-0.24595th
No Garbage Time-0.2724th-0.08674th
First Half-0.2753th-0.05161th
Second Half-0.2214th-0.09681th
Early Downs-0.08422th+0.00240th
Passing Downs-0.4412th-0.21591th
Standard Downs-0.12617th+0.00439th
Goal to Go-0.36411th+0.3277th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.5%Rush 56.5%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
9.2
Yards/Game
282.1
Pts/Drive
1.27
3rd Down%
28.5%
3&Out%
29.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRutgersOpponents
Scoring
Points209351
Points / Game17.429.3
First Downs
Total178235
Rushing8697
Passing83111
Penalty927
Rushing
Attempts431430
Yards1,5381,715
Yards / Carry3.64.0
Yards / Game128.2142.9
Touchdowns1123
Passing
Attempts332381
Completions168224
Completion %50.6%58.8%
Yards1,8472,482
Yards / Attempt5.66.5
Touchdowns1115
Interceptions149
Passer Rating99.83121.78
Total Offense
Plays763811
Yards3,3854,197
Yards / Play4.45.2
Yards / Game282.1349.8
Punt Returns
Returns138
Yards108-11
Average8.3-1.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2623
Yards541579
Average20.825.2
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts7564
Yards3,2972,477
Average44.038.7
Interception Returns
Returns914
Yards77290
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1114
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties9469
Yards770555
Yards / Game64.246.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1130:49
Third Downs
Attempts172170
Conversions4958
Conversion %28.5%34.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1724
Conversions916
Conversion %52.9%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips2841
Scores (TD + FG)2239
Score %78.6%95.1%
Touchdowns1529
TD %53.6%70.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1816
Made1212
Pct66.7%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2445
Made2345
Pct95.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →