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MASS
Massachusetts
MinutemenRun-HeavyMid-American Conference1-11#135 (-12.73)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
1· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
7· FPer play
6· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
33· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.194
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.080
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.219
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.3%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.243
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.99
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.46
own return game
Return Defense
+0.28
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#135
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#130
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 60 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Massachusetts ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense1th
Opp-adjusted defense18th
Offensive EPA/play7th
Defensive EPA/play33th
Offensive success rate6th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc59th
Points per drive4th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Rutgers2022OA -0.152 / +0.067similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense4082Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3973Kent State2017OA -0.276 / -0.054similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3824Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3775Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate369
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Tulane | 10-42 | L | +28.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 2 | @ Toledo | 10-55 | L | +28.0 | L | 49 | O |
| 3 | vs Stony Brook | 20-3 | W | +3.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Temple | 0-28 | L | +9.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Eastern Michigan | 13-20 | L | +20.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Liberty | 24-42 | L | +24.0 | W | 47 | O |
| 7 | vs Buffalo | 7-34 | L | +17.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 9 | vs New Mexico State | 13-23 | L | +2.0 | L | 38.75 | U |
| 10 | @ UConn | 10-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Arkansas State | 33-35 | L | +17.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Texas A&M | 3-20 | L | +33.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Army | 7-44 | L | +20.0 | L | 45 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS5-7
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.223 | 4th | +0.002 | 42th |
| Red Zone | -0.136 | 24th | +0.043 | 38th |
| Third Down | -0.356 | 4th | -0.088 | 80th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.219 | 7th | +0.018 | 37th |
| First Half | -0.160 | 13th | -0.042 | 57th |
| Second Half | -0.302 | 2th | +0.044 | 24th |
| Early Downs | -0.219 | 3th | +0.054 | 17th |
| Passing Downs | -0.292 | 3th | -0.058 | 68th |
| Standard Downs | -0.177 | 10th | +0.035 | 23th |
| Goal to Go | -0.596 | 2th | -0.173 | 68th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.8%Rush 65.2%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
265.8
Pts/Drive
0.99
3rd Down%
28.4%
3&Out%
33.6%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Massachusetts vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Massachusetts | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 150 | 373 |
| Points / Game | 12.5 | 31.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 175 | 227 |
| Rushing | 94 | 103 |
| Passing | 62 | 88 |
| Penalty | 19 | 36 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 520 | 465 |
| Yards | 1,786 | 2,332 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 148.8 | 194.3 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 29 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 277 | 266 |
| Completions | 136 | 143 |
| Completion % | 49.1% | 53.8% |
| Yards | 1,403 | 2,103 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.1 | 7.9 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 86.30 | 134.49 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 797 | 731 |
| Yards | 3,189 | 4,435 |
| Yards / Play | 4.0 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 265.8 | 369.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 23 |
| Yards | 92 | 143 |
| Average | 9.2 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 25 |
| Yards | 638 | 450 |
| Average | 18.2 | 18.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 81 | 50 |
| Yards | 2,982 | 1,989 |
| Average | 36.8 | 39.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 14 |
| Yards | 95 | 135 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 16 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 91 | 67 |
| Yards | 800 | 563 |
| Yards / Game | 66.7 | 46.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:55 | 28:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 194 | 139 |
| Conversions | 55 | 43 |
| Conversion % | 28.4% | 30.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 17 |
| Conversions | 13 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 48.1% | 52.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 25 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 20 | 39 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 88.6% |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 30 |
| TD % | 40.0% | 68.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 18 |
| Made | 13 | 13 |
| Pct | 72.2% | 72.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 47 |
| Made | 13 | 46 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.