Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference2-10#124 (-19.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
10· FRating
20· DPer play
24· DConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
25· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.076
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.104
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.107
Defensive EPA/play
+0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.168
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.184
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 49 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
26th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
11th
Defensive havoc
65th
Points per drive
11th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4812Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3823Massachusetts2022OA -0.194 / -0.080similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3694UTSA2019OA -0.079 / -0.126similar: offensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3685Old Dominion2019OA -0.203 / -0.027similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate361

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Auburn7-41L+34.5W59U
2vs New Hampshire12-22L-7.5L--
4@ Indiana17-52L+22.0L51O
6vs Arkansas State25-43L+8.5L54O
7vs New Mexico State27-35L+5.0L58.5O
8@ Massachusetts20-55L+7.5L54.5O
9@ Troy16-38L+23.5W49.5O
10vs Georgia State17-21L+5.0W49.5U
11@ App State6-27L+17.5L52U
12vs South Alabama52-0W+6.0W45O
13@ Louisiana34-24W+4.5W56O
14@ Coastal Carolina17-28L-3.0L49.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off44thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off41thPass Def46thRush Def32thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09921th+0.00641th
Red Zone-0.12620th+0.10929th
Third Down-0.04241th+0.01246th
No Garbage Time-0.10521th+0.04929th
First Half-0.07632th+0.01238th
Second Half-0.12520th+0.00043th
Early Downs-0.09026th+0.07015th
Passing Downs-0.17512th-0.01146th
Standard Downs-0.05444th+0.01632th
Goal to Go-0.00850th+0.3218th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 23.2%Rush 76.8%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
332.3
Pts/Drive
1.48
3rd Down%
35.1%
3&Out%
29.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points250386
Points / Game20.832.2
First Downs
Total210226
Rushing14696
Passing49108
Penalty1522
Rushing
Attempts644414
Yards2,6682,164
Yards / Carry4.15.2
Yards / Game222.3180.3
Touchdowns1921
Passing
Attempts195332
Completions105184
Completion %53.8%55.4%
Yards1,3202,761
Yards / Attempt6.88.3
Touchdowns828
Interceptions714
Passer Rating117.07144.68
Total Offense
Plays839746
Yards3,9884,925
Yards / Play4.86.6
Yards / Game332.3410.4
Punt Returns
Returns1515
Yards143153
Average9.510.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns497
Yards1,050146
Average21.420.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6953
Yards2,7832,237
Average40.342.2
Interception Returns
Returns147
Yards8043
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles3611
Lost136
Penalties
Penalties7763
Yards648545
Yards / Game54.045.4
Time of Possession
Per Game33:5926:01
Third Downs
Attempts191148
Conversions6758
Conversion %35.1%39.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2816
Conversions177
Conversion %60.7%43.8%
Red Zone
Trips3839
Scores (TD + FG)2931
Score %76.3%79.5%
Touchdowns2027
TD %52.6%69.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1914
Made158
Pct78.9%57.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2851
Made2748
Pct96.4%94.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →