Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference5-7#121 (-17.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

10· FOverall
Offense
7· FRating
14· FPer play
4· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
39· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.153
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.078
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.127
Defensive EPA/play
+0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.1%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.142
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.187
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.24
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 46 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
14th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
6th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
11th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Southern2021OA -0.108 / -0.054similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate5002Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4813Vanderbilt2021OA -0.106 / -0.066similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense3944Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3885Florida State2024OA -0.056 / -0.019similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive success rate380

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Albany31-17W-24.5L--
2@ Massachusetts17-7W-3.5W60.5U
3vs North Carolina23-53L+11.0L56O
4@ Virginia Tech0-38L+28.5L53U
6vs Florida Atlantic28-58L+5.0L57.5O
7@ Marshall3-35L+12.5L48.5U
8vs Western Kentucky31-35L+6.5W49.5O
9@ North Texas38-45L+11.0W59O
10vs Charlotte6-0W-10.0L49.5U
11@ Florida International37-30W+10.0W47.5O
12vs Rice24-21W-7.0L51.5U
13@ Middle Tennessee10-41L+13.5L51.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off21thRush Off15thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off50thPass Def22thRush Def56thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def29th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12413th+0.00940th
Red Zone-0.08528th+0.12721th
Third Down-0.00150th+0.10329th
No Garbage Time-0.13113th+0.01143th
First Half-0.11515th+0.05032th
Second Half-0.13417th-0.02953th
Early Downs-0.09823th-0.06465th
Passing Downs-0.11421th+0.11322th
Standard Downs-0.13015th-0.04256th
Goal to Go-0.3488th+0.23414th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.2%Rush 56.8%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
332.3
Pts/Drive
1.46
3rd Down%
34.4%
3&Out%
27.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points248380
Points / Game20.731.7
First Downs
Total205272
Rushing87129
Passing98128
Penalty2015
Rushing
Attempts461529
Yards1,9672,450
Yards / Carry4.34.6
Yards / Game163.9204.2
Touchdowns1730
Passing
Attempts350356
Completions193220
Completion %55.1%61.8%
Yards2,0212,682
Yards / Attempt5.87.5
Touchdowns919
Interceptions148
Passer Rating104.13138.20
Total Offense
Plays811885
Yards3,9885,132
Yards / Play4.95.8
Yards / Game332.3427.7
Punt Returns
Returns2520
Yards210127
Average8.46.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3437
Yards872744
Average25.620.1
Touchdowns30
Punting
Punts6862
Yards2,6832,690
Average39.543.4
Interception Returns
Returns814
Yards7699
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1515
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties4858
Yards430603
Yards / Game35.850.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3831:22
Third Downs
Attempts180185
Conversions6284
Conversion %34.4%45.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2519
Conversions810
Conversion %32.0%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips3548
Scores (TD + FG)3040
Score %85.7%83.3%
Touchdowns1834
TD %51.4%70.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2013
Made157
Pct75.0%53.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2750
Made2749
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →