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GASO
Georgia Southern
EaglesRun-HeavySun Belt Conference3-9#122 (-8.98)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
9· FOverall
Offense
9· FRating
21· DPer play
28· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
30· DPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.108
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.089
Defensive EPA/play
+0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.131
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.54
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.42
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.60
own return game
Return Defense
-0.82
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#110
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense11th
Opp-adjusted defense25th
Offensive EPA/play21th
Defensive EPA/play30th
Offensive success rate17th
Explosiveness18th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive13th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate5002New Mexico2017OA -0.132 / -0.058similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4053Ball State2017OA -0.115 / -0.131similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3934Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3865Indiana2022OA -0.127 / -0.010similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, pass defense384
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Gardner-Webb | 30-25 | W | -28.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Florida Atlantic | 6-38 | L | +6.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Arkansas | 10-45 | L | +23.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Louisiana | 20-28 | L | +14.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 5 | vs Arkansas State | 59-33 | W | -1.5 | W | 66 | O |
| 6 | @ Troy | 24-27 | L | +5.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 7 | @ South Alabama | 14-41 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs Georgia State | 14-21 | L | +6.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Coastal Carolina | 8-28 | L | +19.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Texas State | 38-30 | W | +2.5 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 12 | vs BYU | 17-34 | L | +20.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 13 | @ App State | 3-27 | L | +24.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.089 | 18th | +0.026 | 35th |
| Red Zone | -0.155 | 23th | +0.178 | 12th |
| Third Down | +0.055 | 44th | +0.080 | 48th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.059 | 31th | +0.042 | 31th |
| First Half | -0.017 | 41th | +0.046 | 30th |
| Second Half | -0.167 | 6th | +0.006 | 46th |
| Early Downs | -0.078 | 25th | +0.060 | 19th |
| Passing Downs | -0.154 | 14th | +0.057 | 30th |
| Standard Downs | -0.049 | 31th | +0.010 | 45th |
| Goal to Go | -0.249 | 20th | +0.216 | 19th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 33.9%Rush 66.1%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
340.3
Pts/Drive
1.54
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
26.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 243 | 377 |
| Points / Game | 20.3 | 31.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 216 | 269 |
| Rushing | 118 | 104 |
| Passing | 80 | 140 |
| Penalty | 18 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 536 | 420 |
| Yards | 2,319 | 1,829 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 193.3 | 152.4 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 275 | 403 |
| Completions | 141 | 250 |
| Completion % | 51.3% | 62.0% |
| Yards | 1,765 | 3,470 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.4 | 8.6 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 102.46 | 154.81 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 811 | 823 |
| Yards | 4,084 | 5,299 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 6.4 |
| Yards / Game | 340.3 | 441.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 17 |
| Yards | 58 | 169 |
| Average | 5.3 | 9.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 30 |
| Yards | 461 | 666 |
| Average | 16.5 | 22.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 60 |
| Yards | 2,881 | 2,441 |
| Average | 43.0 | 40.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 12 |
| Yards | 54 | 35 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 11 |
| Lost | 5 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 77 |
| Yards | 539 | 730 |
| Yards / Game | 44.9 | 60.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:37 | 29:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 158 |
| Conversions | 61 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 35.3% | 38.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 19 |
| Conversions | 12 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 44.4% | 42.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 26 | 38 |
| Score % | 83.9% | 90.5% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 28 |
| TD % | 51.6% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 17 |
| Made | 13 | 14 |
| Pct | 72.2% | 82.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 46 |
| Made | 24 | 45 |
| Pct | 92.3% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 2 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.