Fourth Down Data
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BALL

Ball State

CardinalsBalanced
Mid-American Conference2-10#131 (-26.84)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

2· FOverall
Offense
5· FRating
15· DPer play
28· DConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
28· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.115
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.131
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.124
Defensive EPA/play
+0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.179
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
-2.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#131
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 56 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
11th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
12th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2023OA -0.086 / -0.041similar: passing offense, turnover rate, pass defense4032Georgia Southern2021OA -0.108 / -0.054similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3933Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3784Bowling Green2019OA -0.182 / -0.074similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3775Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate372

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Illinois21-24L+5.5W54.5U
2vs UAB51-31W-13.5W54O
3vs Tennessee Tech28-13W-22.5L--
4@ Western Kentucky21-33L+12.5W50O
5@ Western Michigan3-55L+12.5L54.5O
6@ Akron3-31L+4.5L52U
8vs Central Michigan9-56L+3.5L48.5O
9vs Toledo17-58L+26.5L55O
10@ Eastern Michigan14-56L+25.0L47.5O
11@ Northern Illinois17-63L+29.5L50.5O
12vs Buffalo24-40L+17.5W55.5O
13vs Miami (OH)7-28L+17.0L53U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
8-3
72.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS3-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off6thRush Off26thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off21thPass Def5thRush Def57thRed Zone Def50th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15211th+0.05326th
Red Zone-0.10026th+0.00750th
Third Down-0.23821th+0.3157th
No Garbage Time-0.12714th+0.06424th
First Half-0.13213th+0.13111th
Second Half-0.1699th-0.05160th
Early Downs-0.08828th-0.07968th
Passing Downs-0.2656th+0.2395th
Standard Downs-0.08926th-0.05257th
Goal to Go-0.29213th+0.09634th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.6
Yards/Game
335.2
Pts/Drive
1.48
3rd Down%
38.9%
3&Out%
29.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBall StateOpponents
Scoring
Points215488
Points / Game17.940.7
First Downs
Total225242
Rushing104105
Passing107122
Penalty1415
Rushing
Attempts497448
Yards1,8962,256
Yards / Carry3.85.0
Yards / Game158.0188.0
Touchdowns1527
Passing
Attempts405316
Completions228186
Completion %56.3%58.9%
Yards2,1262,803
Yards / Attempt5.28.9
Touchdowns1129
Interceptions146
Passer Rating102.44159.86
Total Offense
Plays902764
Yards4,0225,059
Yards / Play4.56.6
Yards / Game335.2421.6
Punt Returns
Returns1023
Yards87284
Average8.712.3
Touchdowns03
Kickoff Returns
Returns4836
Yards1,042718
Average21.719.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7551
Yards2,6032,064
Average34.740.5
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards13384
Touchdowns04
Fumbles
Fumbles1514
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties4949
Yards479478
Yards / Game39.939.8
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1026:50
Third Downs
Attempts203148
Conversions7969
Conversion %38.9%46.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2412
Conversions84
Conversion %33.3%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips3051
Scores (TD + FG)2344
Score %76.7%86.3%
Touchdowns1833
TD %60.0%64.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1615
Made912
Pct56.3%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2762
Made2660
Pct96.3%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →