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BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference3-9#133 (-28.13)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
1· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
1· FPer play
17· DConsistency
11· FBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
23· DPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.182
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.208
Defensive EPA/play
+0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.281
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.074
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.33
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#133
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 58 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense2th
Opp-adjusted defense21th
Offensive EPA/play1th
Defensive EPA/play23th
Offensive success rate22th
Explosiveness11th
Defensive havoc29th
Points per drive6th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UTSA2019OA -0.079 / -0.126similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, run defense3822Georgia Tech2019OA -0.075 / -0.064similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3793Vanderbilt2020OA -0.024 / -0.050similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3784Ball State2017OA -0.115 / -0.131similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3775New Mexico2018OA -0.119 / -0.070similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA373
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Morgan State | 46-3 | W | -24.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Kansas State | 0-52 | L | +25.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Louisiana Tech | 7-35 | L | +12.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 4 | @ Kent State | 20-62 | L | +12.0 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Notre Dame | 0-52 | L | +45.5 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Toledo | 20-7 | W | +26.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 8 | vs Central Michigan | 20-38 | L | +11.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 9 | @ Western Michigan | 10-49 | L | +26.5 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Akron | 35-6 | W | -4.5 | W | 49 | U |
| 12 | @ Miami (OH) | 3-44 | L | +17.0 | L | 48 | U |
| 13 | vs Ohio | 24-66 | L | +21.5 | L | 56 | O |
| 14 | @ Buffalo | 7-49 | L | +28.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS0-6
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS1-9
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.167 | 7th | +0.050 | 28th |
| Red Zone | -0.060 | 45th | -0.091 | 69th |
| Third Down | -0.203 | 10th | +0.041 | 47th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.180 | 5th | +0.056 | 29th |
| First Half | -0.180 | 6th | +0.090 | 25th |
| Second Half | -0.153 | 11th | +0.003 | 56th |
| Early Downs | -0.006 | 44th | +0.114 | 6th |
| Passing Downs | -0.360 | 1th | -0.086 | 76th |
| Standard Downs | -0.057 | 27th | +0.114 | 4th |
| Goal to Go | +0.139 | 74th | -0.433 | 92th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.2%Rush 59.8%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
9.8
Yards/Game
319.1
Pts/Drive
1.33
3rd Down%
33.2%
3&Out%
25.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 192 | 463 |
| Points / Game | 16.0 | 38.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 204 | 258 |
| Rushing | 103 | 124 |
| Passing | 88 | 114 |
| Penalty | 13 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 502 | 501 |
| Yards | 1,941 | 2,914 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 161.8 | 242.8 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 36 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 337 | 297 |
| Completions | 189 | 198 |
| Completion % | 56.1% | 66.7% |
| Yards | 1,888 | 2,692 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.6 | 9.1 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 103.05 | 164.76 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 839 | 798 |
| Yards | 3,829 | 5,606 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 7.0 |
| Yards / Game | 319.1 | 467.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 17 |
| Yards | 94 | 116 |
| Average | 5.2 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 43 | 32 |
| Yards | 799 | 642 |
| Average | 18.6 | 20.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 72 | 49 |
| Yards | 2,923 | 1,928 |
| Average | 40.6 | 39.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 15 |
| Yards | 77 | 195 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 18 |
| Lost | 6 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 84 | 63 |
| Yards | 710 | 546 |
| Yards / Game | 59.2 | 45.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:20 | 30:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 156 |
| Conversions | 61 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 33.2% | 44.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 17 |
| Conversions | 7 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 21.9% | 47.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 36 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 25 | 43 |
| Score % | 69.4% | 84.3% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 34 |
| TD % | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 15 |
| Made | 6 | 10 |
| Pct | 54.5% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 62 |
| Made | 22 | 61 |
| Pct | 91.7% | 98.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.