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UTSA
UTSA
RoadrunnersBalancedAmerican Conference4-8#129 (-20.23)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
4· FOverall
Offense
11· FRating
21· DPer play
23· DConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
6· FRating
20· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
75· B3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.126
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.086
Defensive EPA/play
+0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.167
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 54 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense18th
Opp-adjusted defense7th
Offensive EPA/play22th
Defensive EPA/play20th
Offensive success rate27th
Explosiveness20th
Defensive havoc81th
Points per drive12th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Bowling Green2019OA -0.182 / -0.074similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, run defense3822Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: offensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3683Kansas State2020OA -0.003 / -0.042similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense3604North Carolina2017OA -0.028 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA3595Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: turnover rate, run defense, offensive EPA354
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Incarnate Word | 35-7 | W | -9.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Baylor | 14-63 | L | +25.0 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Army | 13-31 | L | +14.5 | L | 44 | P |
| 4 | @ North Texas | 3-45 | L | +17.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 6 | @ UTEP | 26-16 | W | +1.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 7 | vs UAB | 14-33 | L | +12.5 | L | 47 | P |
| 8 | vs Rice | 31-27 | W | +5.0 | W | 43 | O |
| 10 | @ Texas A&M | 14-45 | L | +38.5 | W | 55 | O |
| 11 | @ Old Dominion | 24-23 | W | +3.0 | W | 42 | O |
| 12 | vs Southern Miss | 17-36 | L | +17.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Florida Atlantic | 26-40 | L | +22.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Louisiana Tech | 27-41 | L | +21.0 | W | 57 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-4-2
60.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS6-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.071 | 24th | +0.050 | 29th |
| Red Zone | +0.024 | 61th | -0.077 | 65th |
| Third Down | +0.150 | 75th | +0.018 | 51th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.100 | 16th | +0.086 | 20th |
| First Half | -0.134 | 12th | +0.092 | 22th |
| Second Half | -0.009 | 43th | +0.009 | 50th |
| Early Downs | -0.051 | 28th | +0.107 | 7th |
| Passing Downs | -0.166 | 13th | -0.057 | 67th |
| Standard Downs | -0.017 | 39th | +0.106 | 5th |
| Goal to Go | -0.166 | 33th | +0.078 | 28th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
344.9
Pts/Drive
1.52
3rd Down%
36.3%
3&Out%
29.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UTSA | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 244 | 407 |
| Points / Game | 20.3 | 33.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 216 | 271 |
| Rushing | 101 | 112 |
| Passing | 99 | 133 |
| Penalty | 16 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 453 | 450 |
| Yards | 1,950 | 2,379 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 162.5 | 198.3 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 28 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 366 | 339 |
| Completions | 213 | 215 |
| Completion % | 58.2% | 63.4% |
| Yards | 2,189 | 2,770 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 114.15 | 148.96 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 819 | 789 |
| Yards | 4,139 | 5,149 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 6.5 |
| Yards / Game | 344.9 | 429.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 14 |
| Yards | 52 | 154 |
| Average | 2.2 | 11.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 23 |
| Yards | 652 | 446 |
| Average | 21.0 | 19.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 48 |
| Yards | 2,651 | 2,036 |
| Average | 40.8 | 42.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 11 |
| Yards | 91 | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 20 |
| Lost | 12 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 60 |
| Yards | 829 | 555 |
| Yards / Game | 69.1 | 46.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:20 | 30:40 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 182 | 144 |
| Conversions | 66 | 54 |
| Conversion % | 36.3% | 37.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 19 |
| Conversions | 17 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 54.8% | 52.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 34 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 46 |
| Score % | 82.4% | 88.5% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 30 |
| TD % | 61.8% | 57.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 20 |
| Made | 9 | 18 |
| Pct | 81.8% | 90.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 48 |
| Made | 25 | 47 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 3 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.