Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference4-6#54 (+1.34)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

58· COverall
Offense
53· CRating
43· CPer play
12· FConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
18· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.010
Defensive EPA/play
+0.116
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.127
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.72
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+2.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.64
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#77
model 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
63th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate4102UTSA2019OA -0.079 / -0.126similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense3603Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3554Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3555Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate346

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Arkansas State31-35L-10.5L57O
4@ Oklahoma38-35W+27.5W60.5O
5vs Texas Tech31-21W-2.5W64U
6@ TCU21-14W+8.5W50.5U
8vs Kansas55-14W-20.0W48.5O
9@ West Virginia10-37L+3.5L46O
10vs Oklahoma State18-20L+12.5W46U
12@ Iowa State0-45L+12.0L47U
13@ Baylor31-32L+5.5W46O
14vs Texas31-69L+7.0L51O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4
60.0%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
4-6
40.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off11thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off27thPass Def55thRush Def10thRed Zone Def48th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05425th+0.09620th
Red Zone-0.09329th-0.00048th
Third Down-0.06027th+0.18128th
No Garbage Time-0.00545th+0.11616th
First Half-0.03434th+0.06835th
Second Half-0.07723th+0.12220th
Early Downs-0.07323th+0.06027th
Passing Downs+0.04953th+0.02755th
Standard Downs-0.11211th+0.13210th
Goal to Go+0.08154th+0.22221th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.1%Rush 58.9%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
11.4
Yards/Game
337.4
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
26.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points266322
Points / Game26.632.2
First Downs
Total155229
Rushing7289
Passing67121
Penalty1619
Rushing
Attempts354375
Yards1,5171,772
Yards / Carry4.34.7
Yards / Game151.7177.2
Touchdowns1720
Passing
Attempts247353
Completions137239
Completion %55.5%67.7%
Yards1,8572,675
Yards / Attempt7.57.6
Touchdowns1220
Interceptions107
Passer Rating126.55146.09
Total Offense
Plays601728
Yards3,3744,447
Yards / Play5.66.1
Yards / Game337.4444.7
Punt Returns
Returns149
Yards30918
Average22.12.0
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3416
Yards593419
Average17.426.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5244
Yards2,0791,615
Average40.036.7
Interception Returns
Returns710
Yards6582
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles118
Lost55
Penalties
Penalties6555
Yards564558
Yards / Game56.455.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0130:59
Third Downs
Attempts127147
Conversions4259
Conversion %33.1%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1017
Conversions69
Conversion %60.0%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips3346
Scores (TD + FG)3138
Score %93.9%82.6%
Touchdowns2129
TD %63.6%63.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1718
Made1210
Pct70.6%55.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3040
Made3040
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →