Fourth Down Data
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UK

Kentucky

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference7-6#59 (+2.82)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
63· CRating
40· CPer play
48· CConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
36· DPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
51.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.033
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#28
recruiting 31 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
53th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
37th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
17th
Defensive havoc
36th
Points per drive
55th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: passing offense, pass defense, TD drive rate3622Southern Miss2020OA -0.014 / -0.036similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, pass defense3593Ball State2021OA -0.052 / -0.056similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3584Wake Forest2018OA +0.021 / -0.032similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, defensive EPA3575Kansas State2020OA -0.003 / -0.042similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA355

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Southern Miss24-17W+7.5W51.5U
2vs Eastern Kentucky27-16W-34.5L--
3@ South Carolina23-13W+6.0W48U
4vs Florida27-28L+3.0W44.5O
5vs Eastern Michigan24-20W-14.0L50U
6vs Missouri40-34W-8.5L59.5O
8@ Mississippi State7-45L+14.0L54.5U
9vs Tennessee29-26W-4.0L46O
10vs Ole Miss34-37L-3.5L63O
11@ Vanderbilt44-21W+2.5W53O
12@ Georgia13-42L+23.5L51O
13vs Louisville17-44L+10.0L67.5U
18@ Northwestern23-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off57thRush Off32thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off38thPass Def32thRush Def23thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def29th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04836th+0.05127th
Red Zone+0.02757th+0.03344th
Third Down-0.05438th+0.08429th
No Garbage Time-0.03742th+0.04333th
First Half-0.01351th+0.10917th
Second Half-0.08929th+0.00440th
Early Downs-0.04744th+0.07214th
Passing Downs+0.00357th+0.05732th
Standard Downs-0.07332th+0.04823th
Goal to Go-0.03447th-0.19876th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.3%Rush 59.7%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
16.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
349.8
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
39.3%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points332367
Points / Game25.528.2
First Downs
Total242289
Rushing105124
Passing112145
Penalty2520
Rushing
Attempts488466
Yards2,1022,279
Yards / Carry4.34.9
Yards / Game161.7175.3
Touchdowns2723
Passing
Attempts330427
Completions196274
Completion %59.4%64.2%
Yards2,4463,271
Yards / Attempt7.47.7
Touchdowns1021
Interceptions711
Passer Rating127.41139.59
Total Offense
Plays818893
Yards4,5485,550
Yards / Play5.66.2
Yards / Game349.8426.9
Punt Returns
Returns819
Yards11284
Average14.04.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4835
Yards1,036716
Average21.620.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6748
Yards2,8232,018
Average42.142.0
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards90129
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1414
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties7191
Yards626787
Yards / Game48.260.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2029:40
Third Downs
Attempts168185
Conversions6675
Conversion %39.3%40.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1029
Conversions618
Conversion %60.0%62.1%
Red Zone
Trips4248
Scores (TD + FG)3942
Score %92.9%87.5%
Touchdowns2728
TD %64.3%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2824
Made2216
Pct78.6%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3646
Made3643
Pct100.0%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →