Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#86 (-1.30)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
48· CRating
40· CPer play
33· DConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
39· DPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.018
Defensive EPA/play
+0.023
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.015
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 9 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
58th
Opp-adjusted defense
36th
Offensive EPA/play
40th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Southern Miss2020OA -0.014 / -0.036similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate3932North Texas2019OA -0.041 / -0.097similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3623Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, defensive EPA3564North Carolina2024OA -0.010 / -0.021similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate3435Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense342

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tulane23-17W+2.0W71P
2vs Towson51-20W-34.0L57.5O
3vs Boston College34-41L+6.5L58.5O
4vs Notre Dame27-56L+6.0L59.5O
5vs Rice56-24W-28.0W67O
6vs Clemson3-63L+20.5L60O
8@ Florida State17-38L+10.5L57.5U
9@ Louisville56-35W+3.0W68O
10vs Syracuse24-41L+6.0L77U
11@ NC State27-23W+17.0W69U
12vs Pittsburgh13-34L+5.0L62.5U
13@ Duke59-7W+9.5W61.5O
17vs Memphis37-34W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off48thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off58thPass Def33thRush Def34thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00249th+0.04727th
Red Zone+0.10173th+0.4111th
Third Down+0.09158th+0.26313th
No Garbage Time-0.01341th+0.02438th
First Half-0.05130th-0.04860th
Second Half+0.06370th+0.1535th
Early Downs-0.04233th-0.04759th
Passing Downs+0.01152th+0.08633th
Standard Downs-0.00448th+0.02534th
Goal to Go-0.07229th+0.4702th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.4%Rush 58.6%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
449.8
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points427433
Points / Game32.833.3
First Downs
Total320290
Rushing158120
Passing141149
Penalty2121
Rushing
Attempts625526
Yards2,7782,503
Yards / Carry4.44.8
Yards / Game213.7192.5
Touchdowns2131
Passing
Attempts442489
Completions247308
Completion %55.9%63.0%
Yards3,0693,459
Yards / Attempt6.97.1
Touchdowns2526
Interceptions136
Passer Rating126.99137.50
Total Offense
Plays1,0671,015
Yards5,8475,962
Yards / Play5.55.9
Yards / Game449.8458.6
Punt Returns
Returns3223
Yards361219
Average11.39.5
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns2546
Yards5061,097
Average20.223.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7885
Yards3,2293,474
Average41.440.9
Interception Returns
Returns613
Yards13377
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles814
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties5575
Yards548647
Yards / Game42.249.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1431:46
Third Downs
Attempts229218
Conversions9692
Conversion %41.9%42.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2627
Conversions1514
Conversion %57.7%51.9%
Red Zone
Trips6140
Scores (TD + FG)5237
Score %85.2%92.5%
Touchdowns3732
TD %60.7%80.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2211
Made198
Pct86.4%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5257
Made5255
Pct100.0%96.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →