Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference4-8#109 (-10.26)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
25· DRating
46· CPer play
38· DConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
29· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.041
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.097
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.000
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.053
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.247
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.18

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.27
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 34 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri2020OA -0.009 / -0.039similar: pass defense, havoc rate, passing offense4002West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3783Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3734Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate3665Ole Miss2017OA +0.034 / -0.091similar: havoc rate, run defense, turnover rate365

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Abilene Christian51-31W-23.0L58.5O
2@ SMU27-49L+3.5L72.5O
3@ California17-23L+14.5W50.5U
4vs UTSA45-3W-17.5W57U
5vs Houston25-46L-7.5L59O
7@ Southern Miss27-45L+3.0L58.5O
8vs Middle Tennessee33-30W-7.0L59.5O
9@ Charlotte38-39L-4.0L64O
10vs UTEP52-26W-22.0W58.5O
11@ Louisiana Tech17-52L+6.0L72.5U
13@ Rice14-20L-6.5L55U
14vs UAB21-26L+4.0L49.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off41thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off48thPass Def66thRush Def1thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00549th+0.07120th
Red Zone+0.02762th+0.2116th
Third Down+0.01548th+0.18917th
No Garbage Time+0.00248th+0.07025th
First Half-0.03134th+0.02939th
Second Half+0.03861th+0.1257th
Early Downs+0.01755th+0.06122th
Passing Downs+0.04354th-0.05566th
Standard Downs-0.01541th+0.1441th
Goal to Go-0.09940th+0.26611th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.5%Rush 46.5%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
418.6
Pts/Drive
2.18
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
18.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points367390
Points / Game30.632.5
First Downs
Total253261
Rushing88116
Passing150120
Penalty1525
Rushing
Attempts395486
Yards1,6232,263
Yards / Carry4.14.7
Yards / Game135.3188.6
Touchdowns1131
Passing
Attempts454374
Completions283230
Completion %62.3%61.5%
Yards3,4002,668
Yards / Attempt7.57.1
Touchdowns3314
Interceptions124
Passer Rating143.94131.63
Total Offense
Plays849860
Yards5,0234,931
Yards / Play5.95.7
Yards / Game418.6410.9
Punt Returns
Returns1913
Yards160138
Average8.410.6
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4930
Yards1,141709
Average23.323.6
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts5160
Yards2,2112,381
Average43.439.7
Interception Returns
Returns412
Yards39233
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1416
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties6457
Yards672461
Yards / Game56.038.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0831:52
Third Downs
Attempts172177
Conversions6374
Conversion %36.6%41.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3220
Conversions1810
Conversion %56.3%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4744
Scores (TD + FG)3941
Score %83.0%93.2%
Touchdowns2830
TD %59.6%68.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2017
Made1615
Pct80.0%88.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4441
Made4339
Pct97.7%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts29
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →