Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference6-6#68 (+1.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

49· COverall
Offense
65· CRating
65· CPer play
74· BConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
37· DRating
17· DPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.034
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.091
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.024
Defensive EPA/play
+0.088
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#19
recruiting 49 spots higher
31 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
68th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
32th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: run defense, pass defense, turnover rate4142Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3813Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, run defense3744Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, run defense3705West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate366

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Alabama47-27W-21.5L59O
2vs UT Martin45-23W-33.5L--
3@ California16-27L-7.0L68U
5@ Alabama3-66L+29.0L54.5O
6@ Auburn23-44L+21.0P56O
7vs Vanderbilt57-35W-3.0W56O
8vs LSU24-40L+6.5L59O
9vs Arkansas37-38L-3.0L62O
10@ Kentucky37-34W+3.5W63O
11vs Louisiana50-22W-23.0W67O
12vs Texas A&M24-31L+2.5L69U
13@ Mississippi State31-28W+14.0W64.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
8-3
72.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off37thRush Off85thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off17thPass Def28thRush Def8thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03369th+0.1069th
Red Zone+0.04160th+0.2328th
Third Down-0.28217th+0.06633th
No Garbage Time+0.02766th+0.09916th
First Half+0.05472th+0.1576th
Second Half+0.00859th+0.05821th
Early Downs+0.10592th+0.1305th
Passing Downs-0.05837th+0.07928th
Standard Downs+0.07585th+0.1198th
Goal to Go+0.36390th+0.14425th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.0%Rush 46.0%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
462.3
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
21.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points394415
Points / Game32.834.6
First Downs
Total255278
Rushing86133
Passing151121
Penalty1824
Rushing
Attempts370550
Yards1,6072,944
Yards / Carry4.35.4
Yards / Game133.9245.3
Touchdowns1929
Passing
Attempts434345
Completions281199
Completion %64.7%57.7%
Yards3,9412,570
Yards / Attempt9.17.4
Touchdowns2818
Interceptions138
Passer Rating156.32132.83
Total Offense
Plays804895
Yards5,5485,514
Yards / Play6.96.2
Yards / Game462.3459.5
Punt Returns
Returns711
Yards47109
Average6.79.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3851
Yards9391,038
Average24.720.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5754
Yards2,3252,240
Average40.841.5
Interception Returns
Returns813
Yards104258
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1411
Lost55
Penalties
Penalties9168
Yards749643
Yards / Game62.453.6
Time of Possession
Per Game25:1334:47
Third Downs
Attempts155188
Conversions5978
Conversion %38.1%41.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1019
Conversions412
Conversion %40.0%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips4357
Scores (TD + FG)4151
Score %95.3%89.5%
Touchdowns2437
TD %55.8%64.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2428
Made1920
Pct79.2%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4550
Made4347
Pct95.6%94.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →