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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#81 (-3.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
48· CRating
69· CPer play
51· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
27· DPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
+0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.010
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.42

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.23
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 6 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
31th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
25th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, passing offense4352Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense4103Baylor2018OA +0.089 / -0.076similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense3964Ole Miss2017OA +0.034 / -0.091similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3815Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense379

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs SMU30-37L+1.5W58.5O
2@ UNLV43-17W-1.0W63.5U
3@ Georgia0-55L+32.5L58.5U
4vs Southern Illinois41-28W-23.0L62O
5@ Troy50-43W+7.0W59.5O
6@ Georgia State38-52L-6.5L69O
8vs Louisiana20-37L+6.0L69U
9vs Texas State38-14W-11.5W60.5U
10@ UL Monroe48-41W0.0W69.5O
12vs Coastal Carolina28-27W-14.0L60.5U
13vs Georgia Southern38-33W-1.0W52O
14@ South Alabama30-34L-10.5L53O
17vs Florida International34-26W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off66thRed Zone Off51th3rd Down Off77thPass Def13thRush Def37thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04665th+0.07319th
Red Zone-0.02851th-0.17580th
Third Down+0.17377th+0.20216th
No Garbage Time+0.05166th+0.07024th
First Half+0.04362th+0.09522th
Second Half+0.05069th+0.04630th
Early Downs+0.04871th+0.02937th
Passing Downs+0.06262th+0.17313th
Standard Downs+0.03666th+0.02537th
Goal to Go+0.00351th-0.27480th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.7%Rush 49.3%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
439.3
Pts/Drive
2.42
3rd Down%
40.4%
3&Out%
20.9%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points438444
Points / Game33.734.2
First Downs
Total287315
Rushing96127
Passing166157
Penalty2531
Rushing
Attempts456557
Yards1,6542,801
Yards / Carry3.65.0
Yards / Game127.2215.5
Touchdowns1332
Passing
Attempts469461
Completions298280
Completion %63.5%60.7%
Yards4,0573,417
Yards / Attempt8.77.4
Touchdowns3723
Interceptions1112
Passer Rating157.55134.26
Total Offense
Plays9251,018
Yards5,7116,218
Yards / Play6.26.1
Yards / Game439.3478.3
Punt Returns
Returns2313
Yards228112
Average9.98.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4343
Yards954816
Average22.219.0
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6555
Yards2,8742,260
Average44.241.1
Interception Returns
Returns1211
Yards20574
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2412
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties9978
Yards916747
Yards / Game70.557.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3932:20
Third Downs
Attempts193195
Conversions7874
Conversion %40.4%37.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2336
Conversions1320
Conversion %56.5%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4561
Scores (TD + FG)4047
Score %88.9%77.0%
Touchdowns2734
TD %60.0%55.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2223
Made1918
Pct86.4%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5450
Made5346
Pct98.1%92.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts06
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →