Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneBalanced
American Conference5-7#84 (-1.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
53· CRating
72· BPer play
59· CConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
29· DPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.064
Defensive EPA/play
+0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.027
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.28

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.48
own return game
Return Defense
-0.27
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#76
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 9 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
29th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense4102Florida2023OA +0.082 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3843Miami2021OA +0.102 / +0.006similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, run defense3834Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: pass defense, run defense, passing offense3755Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: pass defense, havoc rate, rushing offense371

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wyoming37-40L-6.5L44O
2vs Northern Illinois38-35W-6.5L63.5O
3vs Jacksonville State54-17W-7.0W56.5O
4@ Ole Miss27-35L+21.5W65.5U
5vs Cincinnati21-31L+9.5L58.5U
6@ Navy21-53L-6.0L46O
8@ Temple27-16W----
9vs SMU34-45L+2.5L64O
10vs Tulane13-27L+6.5L61.5U
11@ Memphis10-26L-14.0L58.5O
12vs South Florida48-42W----
13@ Houston37-30W+12.0W67P

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off67thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off73thPass Def36thRush Def21thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06270th+0.03625th
Red Zone+0.08367th+0.00347th
Third Down+0.19673th-0.03567th
No Garbage Time+0.06573th+0.03527th
First Half+0.08275th+0.08219th
Second Half+0.03967th-0.01244th
Early Downs+0.02467th+0.01036th
Passing Downs+0.12578th+0.03236th
Standard Downs+0.03067th+0.03821th
Goal to Go-0.03149th+0.05137th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
411.8
Pts/Drive
2.28
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points367397
Points / Game30.633.1
First Downs
Total257247
Rushing91123
Passing136105
Penalty3019
Rushing
Attempts429508
Yards1,6642,495
Yards / Carry3.94.9
Yards / Game138.7207.9
Touchdowns1820
Passing
Attempts414338
Completions241195
Completion %58.2%57.7%
Yards3,2782,476
Yards / Attempt7.97.3
Touchdowns2721
Interceptions106
Passer Rating141.41136.18
Total Offense
Plays843846
Yards4,9424,971
Yards / Play5.95.9
Yards / Game411.8414.3
Punt Returns
Returns1724
Yards85295
Average5.012.3
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns1930
Yards303442
Average15.914.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5954
Yards2,5392,295
Average43.042.5
Interception Returns
Returns610
Yards28103
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1420
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties7375
Yards680710
Yards / Game56.759.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5431:07
Third Downs
Attempts169180
Conversions6766
Conversion %39.6%36.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1724
Conversions1114
Conversion %64.7%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips5047
Scores (TD + FG)4442
Score %88.0%89.4%
Touchdowns3125
TD %62.0%53.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2128
Made1722
Pct81.0%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4545
Made4445
Pct97.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →