Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-5#50 (+3.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

63· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
74· BPer play
35· DConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
26· DPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.060
Defensive EPA/play
+0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.012
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.066
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.72
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#64
model 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 36 spots higher
42 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
86th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
26th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3892Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, run defense3833Massachusetts2017OA -0.010 / -0.085similar: passing offense, run defense, rushing offense3564Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3525California2025OA -0.011 / -0.044similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, defensive EPA347

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Alabama13-44L+19.5L61.5U
2vs App State25-23W-8.0L54U
3vs Michigan State17-38L-6.0L56.5U
4vs Central Connecticut State69-0W----
5vs Virginia28-30L----
7@ North Carolina42-45L+7.0W62.5O
8vs NC State31-30W+3.0W51.5O
9@ Pittsburgh38-34W+9.0W61O
10vs Georgia Tech33-30W-10.5L64U
11@ Florida State28-31L-2.5L60.5U
12vs Virginia Tech38-26W-7.5W55.5O
13@ Duke47-10W-21.5W68.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off47thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off80thPass Def57thRush Def22thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06475th+0.02635th
Red Zone-0.01254th+0.04531th
Third Down+0.22680th+0.26815th
No Garbage Time+0.07280th+0.04829th
First Half+0.04763th+0.02139th
Second Half+0.08084th+0.03332th
Early Downs-0.02838th-0.01953th
Passing Downs+0.19692th-0.02457th
Standard Downs-0.00547th+0.05722th
Goal to Go+0.07269th-0.00652th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.8%Rush 47.2%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
448.8
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points409341
Points / Game34.128.4
First Downs
Total294247
Rushing9998
Passing153126
Penalty4223
Rushing
Attempts415429
Yards1,5321,668
Yards / Carry3.73.9
Yards / Game127.7139.0
Touchdowns2016
Passing
Attempts464436
Completions295270
Completion %63.6%61.9%
Yards3,8543,007
Yards / Attempt8.36.9
Touchdowns3021
Interceptions108
Passer Rating150.37132.08
Total Offense
Plays879865
Yards5,3864,675
Yards / Play6.15.4
Yards / Game448.8389.6
Punt Returns
Returns2115
Yards19960
Average9.54.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1526
Yards306673
Average20.425.9
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5166
Yards2,2782,950
Average44.744.7
Interception Returns
Returns810
Yards11337
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1310
Lost73
Penalties
Penalties8793
Yards763868
Yards / Game63.672.3
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2232:35
Third Downs
Attempts174193
Conversions7377
Conversion %42.0%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2121
Conversions1510
Conversion %71.4%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips5439
Scores (TD + FG)4637
Score %85.2%94.9%
Touchdowns3223
TD %59.3%59.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2125
Made1719
Pct81.0%76.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4936
Made4836
Pct98.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →