Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#65 (+0.35)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

52· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
40· CPer play
62· CConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
40· CPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.021
Defensive EPA/play
+0.011
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.032
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.057
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#80
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#55
recruiting 10 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
32th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri State2025OA -0.021 / -0.089similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate4062Massachusetts2017OA -0.010 / -0.085similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3983Sam Houston2026OA +0.018 / +0.019similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3744Miami2021OA +0.102 / +0.006similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3495Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA346

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Oregon State34-15W-1.3W48.5O
2vs Texas Southern35-3W-44.5L54.5U
3vs Minnesota27-14W+2.5W41P
4@ San Diego State0-34L-14.0L47U
5@ Boston College28-24W+2.5W47.5O
6vs Duke21-45L+3.0L55O
8vs North Carolina21-18W+13.5W51.75O
9@ Virginia Tech34-42L----
10vs Virginia21-31L+10.5W45.5O
11@ Louisville29-26W+18.0W49O
13@ Stanford10-31L-4.0L47.5U
14vs SMU38-35W+13.5W53.5O
18@ Hawai'i31-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-4-1
66.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off26thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off67thPass Def90thRush Def7thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02441th+0.01538th
Red Zone+0.05562th+0.07931th
Third Down+0.17167th+0.13831th
No Garbage Time-0.02240th+0.01636th
First Half+0.06071th-0.03055th
Second Half-0.11811th+0.05825th
Early Downs-0.09614th+0.05419th
Passing Downs+0.03461th-0.18090th
Standard Downs-0.05526th+0.1177th
Goal to Go+0.11664th+0.20221th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.8%Rush 43.2%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
357.6
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
19.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points329353
Points / Game25.327.2
First Downs
Total260255
Rushing63113
Passing169117
Penalty2825
Rushing
Attempts385431
Yards1,0622,036
Yards / Carry2.84.7
Yards / Game81.7156.6
Touchdowns2124
Passing
Attempts506420
Completions323259
Completion %63.8%61.7%
Yards3,5872,667
Yards / Attempt7.16.3
Touchdowns2014
Interceptions108
Passer Rating132.47122.20
Total Offense
Plays891851
Yards4,6494,703
Yards / Play5.25.5
Yards / Game357.6361.8
Punt Returns
Returns2520
Yards259129
Average10.46.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2037
Yards364712
Average18.219.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6061
Yards2,4532,470
Average40.940.5
Interception Returns
Returns810
Yards107187
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles188
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties10196
Yards840817
Yards / Game64.662.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1029:46
Third Downs
Attempts177180
Conversions7275
Conversion %40.7%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2319
Conversions1212
Conversion %52.2%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips5145
Scores (TD + FG)4438
Score %86.3%84.4%
Touchdowns3428
TD %66.7%62.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1924
Made1417
Pct73.7%70.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3938
Made3938
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →