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Missouri State

BearsBalanced
Conference USA7-6#102 (-9.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
60· CPer play
51· CConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
29· DPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.089
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.027
Defensive EPA/play
+0.034
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.007
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.202
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#100
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 23 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Missouri State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
18th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2025OA -0.011 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate4062Michigan State2022OA +0.034 / -0.048similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate4013Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3694Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3615Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: run defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA348

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ USC13-73L+36.0L59.5O
2@ Marshall21-20W+7.0W53.5U
3vs SMU10-28L+16.5L47.5U
4vs UT Martin42-10W-14.5W55.5U
5vs Western Kentucky22-27L+3.5L60U
7@ Middle Tennessee22-20W----
9@ New Mexico State24-17W-3.0W50.25U
10vs Florida International28-21W----
11@ Liberty21-17W+7.5W51.5U
12vs UTEP38-24W-19.5L55.5O
13@ Kennesaw State34-41L+3.5L61.5O
14vs Louisiana Tech30-42L+5.5L65.5O
17@ Arkansas State28-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off27thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off58thPass Def44thRush Def22thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00551th+0.04228th
Red Zone+0.03357th+0.16317th
Third Down+0.12358th+0.08546th
No Garbage Time+0.02761th+0.03428th
First Half-0.02341th+0.07617th
Second Half+0.03569th+0.00542th
Early Downs-0.04433th+0.06415th
Passing Downs+0.10080th-0.00244th
Standard Downs-0.05427th+0.06322th
Goal to Go-0.05144th+0.04843th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.1%Rush 48.9%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
392.2
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
15.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Missouri State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouri StateOpponents
Scoring
Points333374
Points / Game25.628.8
First Downs
Total266267
Rushing86100
Passing148136
Penalty3231
Rushing
Attempts417429
Yards1,4621,993
Yards / Carry3.54.6
Yards / Game112.5153.3
Touchdowns1226
Passing
Attempts435413
Completions277265
Completion %63.7%64.2%
Yards3,6362,983
Yards / Attempt8.47.2
Touchdowns3019
Interceptions118
Passer Rating151.59136.14
Total Offense
Plays852842
Yards5,0984,976
Yards / Play6.05.9
Yards / Game392.2382.8
Punt Returns
Returns1619
Yards97238
Average6.112.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3229
Yards619513
Average19.317.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6255
Yards2,4992,378
Average40.343.2
Interception Returns
Returns811
Yards109229
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties9997
Yards864989
Yards / Game66.576.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2128:39
Third Downs
Attempts169173
Conversions6270
Conversion %36.7%40.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1319
Conversions89
Conversion %61.5%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips4444
Scores (TD + FG)3738
Score %84.1%86.4%
Touchdowns2829
TD %63.6%65.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2221
Made1413
Pct63.6%61.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3848
Made3747
Pct97.4%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →