Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansBalanced
Big Ten Conference5-7#81 (-1.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
43· CPer play
54· CConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
23· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.034
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.044
Defensive EPA/play
+0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.097
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.63
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.35
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#92
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#39
recruiting 42 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
27th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
41th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri State2025OA -0.021 / -0.089similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3992Nevada2017OA +0.009 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3853Houston2023OA +0.020 / -0.059similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3754Purdue2020OA +0.014 / -0.015similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3685Colorado2018OA -0.017 / +0.030similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, turnover rate367

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Michigan35-13W----
2vs Akron52-0W-34.5W56U
3@ Washington28-39L+3.5L56.5O
4vs Minnesota7-34L+3.0L51U
5@ Maryland13-27L+8.5L60U
6vs Ohio State20-49L+27.0L65O
7vs Wisconsin34-28W+7.5W49.5O
9@ Michigan7-29L+23.0W55U
10@ Illinois23-15W+16.0W41.5U
11vs Rutgers27-21W-10.0L40.5O
12vs Indiana31-39L-10.5L47.5O
13@ Penn State16-35L+18.0L52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off23thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off31thPass Def44thRush Def19thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03146th+0.02630th
Red Zone+0.05360th-0.08358th
Third Down-0.03231th+0.06247th
No Garbage Time-0.04443th+0.05222th
First Half-0.00946th+0.09317th
Second Half-0.05638th-0.03956th
Early Downs-0.06727th+0.00738th
Passing Downs+0.09370th-0.00744th
Standard Downs-0.09623th+0.04319th
Goal to Go-0.16629th-0.28281th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.3%Rush 46.7%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
353.0
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
38.8%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points293329
Points / Game24.427.4
First Downs
Total241272
Rushing80114
Passing133140
Penalty2818
Rushing
Attempts361500
Yards1,3562,143
Yards / Carry3.84.3
Yards / Game113.0178.6
Touchdowns1614
Passing
Attempts412360
Completions258239
Completion %62.6%66.4%
Yards2,8802,855
Yards / Attempt7.07.9
Touchdowns2326
Interceptions122
Passer Rating133.94155.73
Total Offense
Plays773860
Yards4,2364,998
Yards / Play5.55.8
Yards / Game353.0416.5
Punt Returns
Returns1615
Yards15889
Average9.95.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2333
Yards421633
Average18.319.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5149
Yards2,4912,047
Average48.841.8
Interception Returns
Returns212
Yards3260
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1218
Lost410
Penalties
Penalties6989
Yards654759
Yards / Game54.563.3
Time of Possession
Per Game26:1333:47
Third Downs
Attempts152177
Conversions5977
Conversion %38.8%43.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2826
Conversions1216
Conversion %42.9%61.5%
Red Zone
Trips3947
Scores (TD + FG)2837
Score %71.8%78.7%
Touchdowns2529
TD %64.1%61.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1219
Made613
Pct50.0%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3339
Made3138
Pct93.9%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →