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HOU
Houston
CougarsBalancedBig 12 Conference4-8#96 (-3.75)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
29· DOverall
Offense
48· CRating
39· DPer play
49· CConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
10· FPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
14· FRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
5· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.018
Defensive EPA/play
+0.112
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.130
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.065
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.02
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#106
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
recruiting 35 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense61th
Opp-adjusted defense25th
Offensive EPA/play39th
Defensive EPA/play10th
Offensive success rate44th
Explosiveness58th
Defensive havoc17th
Points per drive43th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ball State2024OA -0.000 / -0.067similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3972Georgia Tech2021OA +0.003 / -0.081similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3733Michigan State2022OA +0.034 / -0.048similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3724UL Monroe2022OA +0.020 / -0.119similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3585UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate352
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UTSA | 17-14 | W | +1.8 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Rice | 41-43 | L | -8.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | vs TCU | 13-36 | L | +7.5 | L | 64 | U |
| 4 | vs Sam Houston | 38-7 | W | -12.0 | W | 38 | O |
| 5 | @ Texas Tech | 28-49 | L | +8.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 7 | vs West Virginia | 41-39 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Texas | 24-31 | L | +23.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 9 | @ Kansas State | 0-41 | L | +17.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Baylor | 25-24 | W | +4.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 11 | vs Cincinnati | 14-24 | L | -2.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Oklahoma State | 30-43 | L | +7.0 | L | 59 | O |
| 13 | @ UCF | 13-27 | L | +13.5 | L | 61.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.039 | 30th | +0.099 | 13th |
| Red Zone | -0.191 | 14th | +0.100 | 27th |
| Third Down | +0.268 | 64th | +0.493 | 5th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.019 | 35th | +0.115 | 10th |
| First Half | +0.025 | 53th | +0.121 | 13th |
| Second Half | -0.108 | 14th | +0.074 | 26th |
| Early Downs | -0.021 | 54th | -0.049 | 55th |
| Passing Downs | -0.031 | 29th | +0.315 | 2th |
| Standard Downs | -0.045 | 36th | -0.009 | 44th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 33th | +0.014 | 50th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.2%Rush 46.8%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
360.2
Pts/Drive
2.02
3rd Down%
36.5%
3&Out%
15.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Houston | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 284 | 378 |
| Points / Game | 23.7 | 31.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 230 | 274 |
| Rushing | 84 | 119 |
| Passing | 128 | 143 |
| Penalty | 18 | 12 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 359 | 467 |
| Yards | 1,424 | 2,023 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 118.7 | 168.6 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 27 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 384 |
| Completions | 261 | 263 |
| Completion % | 64.0% | 68.5% |
| Yards | 2,898 | 3,064 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 136.67 | 148.87 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 767 | 851 |
| Yards | 4,322 | 5,087 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 360.2 | 423.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 11 |
| Yards | 100 | 55 |
| Average | 6.7 | 5.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 24 |
| Yards | 625 | 546 |
| Average | 21.6 | 22.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 41 |
| Yards | 2,022 | 1,723 |
| Average | 41.3 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 13 |
| Yards | 144 | 103 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 13 |
| Lost | 2 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 64 |
| Yards | 590 | 567 |
| Yards / Game | 49.2 | 47.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:59 | 33:11 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 156 | 161 |
| Conversions | 57 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 36.5% | 48.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 22 |
| Conversions | 7 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 25.9% | 63.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 27 | 40 |
| Score % | 77.1% | 81.6% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 34 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 69.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 17 |
| Made | 8 | 10 |
| Pct | 57.1% | 58.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 48 |
| Made | 34 | 44 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 91.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.