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BALL
Ball State
CardinalsBalancedMid-American Conference3-9#122 (-7.44)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
50· CRating
41· CPer play
50· CConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
3· FPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.000
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.007
Defensive EPA/play
+0.155
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.162
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#127
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense47th
Opp-adjusted defense4th
Offensive EPA/play42th
Defensive EPA/play3th
Offensive success rate45th
Explosiveness73th
Defensive havoc21th
Points per drive45th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Houston2023OA +0.020 / -0.059similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3972Charlotte2021OA +0.009 / -0.235similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3623Nevada2017OA +0.009 / -0.079similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3574Eastern Michigan2025OA +0.012 / -0.169similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3555Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate337
2024 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Missouri State | 42-34 | W | -3.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Miami | 0-62 | L | +36.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Central Michigan | 34-37 | L | +6.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 5 | @ James Madison | 7-63 | L | +20.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Western Michigan | 42-45 | L | +9.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Kent State | 37-35 | W | -6.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Vanderbilt | 14-24 | L | +25.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Northern Illinois | 25-23 | W | +12.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Miami (OH) | 21-27 | L | +3.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Buffalo | 48-51 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Bowling Green | 13-38 | L | +15.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Ohio | 21-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
8-3-1
72.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.001 | 43th | +0.176 | 1th |
| Red Zone | +0.193 | 84th | +0.324 | 4th |
| Third Down | +0.312 | 90th | +0.232 | 19th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.005 | 51th | +0.166 | 3th |
| First Half | -0.017 | 40th | +0.149 | 5th |
| Second Half | +0.017 | 49th | +0.199 | 1th |
| Early Downs | -0.088 | 16th | +0.098 | 7th |
| Passing Downs | +0.076 | 63th | +0.257 | 3th |
| Standard Downs | -0.043 | 31th | +0.135 | 3th |
| Goal to Go | +0.044 | 56th | +0.171 | 16th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 54.1%Rush 45.9%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
347.8
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
13.5%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ball State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 304 | 481 |
| Points / Game | 25.3 | 40.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 243 | 267 |
| Rushing | 86 | 100 |
| Passing | 134 | 145 |
| Penalty | 23 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 373 | 404 |
| Yards | 1,234 | 2,104 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 102.8 | 175.3 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 439 | 376 |
| Completions | 280 | 233 |
| Completion % | 63.8% | 62.0% |
| Yards | 2,940 | 3,355 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 8.9 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 37 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 134.57 | 165.14 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 812 | 780 |
| Yards | 4,174 | 5,459 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 7.0 |
| Yards / Game | 347.8 | 454.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 17 |
| Yards | 15 | 163 |
| Average | 1.7 | 9.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 34 |
| Yards | 794 | 609 |
| Average | 22.7 | 17.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 34 |
| Yards | 2,257 | 1,406 |
| Average | 40.3 | 41.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 11 |
| Yards | 115 | 236 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 14 |
| Lost | 3 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 59 | 64 |
| Yards | 544 | 593 |
| Yards / Game | 45.3 | 49.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:58 | 29:02 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 148 |
| Conversions | 75 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 42.4% | 48.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 16 |
| Conversions | 12 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 46.2% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 34 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 44 |
| Score % | 88.2% | 97.8% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 35 |
| TD % | 61.8% | 77.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 15 |
| Made | 13 | 14 |
| Pct | 86.7% | 93.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 56 |
| Made | 35 | 53 |
| Pct | 97.2% | 94.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 6 |
| Made | 1 | 4 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.