Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference2-10#99 (-4.81)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
50· CRating
41· CPer play
43· CConsistency
82· BBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
12· FPer play
11· FConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
+0.139
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
52.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.154
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.86
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#96
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 61 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
46th
Explosiveness
83th
Defensive havoc
3th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio2026OA +0.017 / -0.067similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3962Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3933Nevada2017OA +0.009 / -0.079similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3904Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3825Eastern Michigan2025OA +0.012 / -0.169similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA372

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs SMU24-31L----
2vs UTSA48-51L-7.0L56O
3@ UL Monroe38-17W-5.5W61U
4@ Boston College21-24L+17.5W57.5U
6@ Troy17-37L+7.0L61.5U
7@ South Alabama20-30L+2.5L58U
8@ BYU14-52L+28.5L60.5O
9vs Louisiana34-44L+16.5W56O
10vs App State17-38L+17.5L56.5U
11@ Georgia Southern38-40L+10.0W50.75O
12vs Arkansas State47-45W+6.0W68.5O
13vs Coastal Carolina14-49L+17.0L58O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off27thRush Off63thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off42thPass Def6thRush Def21thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00047th+0.13312th
Red Zone+0.30395th+0.19313th
Third Down+0.01442th+0.3449th
No Garbage Time-0.02338th+0.14113th
First Half-0.04730th+0.2173th
Second Half+0.04759th+0.04045th
Early Downs+0.00754th+0.03934th
Passing Downs-0.05727th+0.2686th
Standard Downs+0.03163th+0.07421th
Goal to Go+0.18872th+0.31313th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.2%Rush 47.8%
Havoc/Game
9.9
Havoc Rate
12.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
369.7
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
22.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points332458
Points / Game27.738.2
First Downs
Total246314
Rushing89143
Passing123147
Penalty3424
Rushing
Attempts372526
Yards1,5752,694
Yards / Carry4.25.1
Yards / Game131.3224.5
Touchdowns1529
Passing
Attempts406413
Completions248278
Completion %61.1%67.3%
Yards2,8613,245
Yards / Attempt7.07.9
Touchdowns2626
Interceptions147
Passer Rating134.51150.70
Total Offense
Plays778939
Yards4,4365,939
Yards / Play5.76.3
Yards / Game369.7494.9
Punt Returns
Returns1715
Yards209122
Average12.38.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4821
Yards992369
Average20.717.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5742
Yards2,3361,780
Average41.042.4
Interception Returns
Returns714
Yards156276
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties6284
Yards597794
Yards / Game49.866.2
Time of Possession
Per Game25:5034:10
Third Downs
Attempts151179
Conversions5088
Conversion %33.1%49.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2621
Conversions1014
Conversion %38.5%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4061
Scores (TD + FG)3355
Score %82.5%90.2%
Touchdowns3041
TD %75.0%67.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1223
Made918
Pct75.0%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4358
Made4156
Pct95.3%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →