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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference3-9#117 (-5.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
25· DRating
50· CPer play
40· CConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
6· FRating
4· FPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.137
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.011
Defensive EPA/play
+0.149
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.138
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#117
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#86
market 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
46th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ole Miss2017OA +0.034 / -0.091similar: run defense, turnover rate, pass defense4172Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: pass defense, run defense, takeaway rate4163Central Michigan2023OA +0.010 / -0.139similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3944Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3935Eastern Michigan2025OA +0.012 / -0.169similar: run defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate386

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Florida International22-17W-12.0L57.5U
1@ SMU14-38L+20.0L66.5U
2vs Northwestern State51-21W-23.0W60.5O
3vs North Texas37-40L-4.5L69.5O
4@ Nebraska14-28L+20.5W47U
5@ UTEP24-10W+6.0L60O
6vs Western Kentucky28-35L+3.0L54.5U
7@ Middle Tennessee23-31L----
9vs New Mexico State24-27L----
10@ Liberty30-56L+16.5L58.75O
11vs Sam Houston27-42L-7.5L48.5O
12@ Jacksonville State17-56L+8.5L54.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off55thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off30thPass Def13thRush Def16thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02658th+0.1149th
Red Zone+0.10573th+0.2716th
Third Down+0.09530th+0.4437th
No Garbage Time+0.01253th+0.1427th
First Half-0.00742th+0.2053th
Second Half+0.05772th+0.01147th
Early Downs+0.04781th-0.00536th
Passing Downs+0.07658th+0.17313th
Standard Downs-0.00355th+0.08216th
Goal to Go-0.02043th+0.37410th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.6%Rush 47.4%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
384.7
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
30.5%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points311401
Points / Game25.933.4
First Downs
Total243249
Rushing83133
Passing13287
Penalty2829
Rushing
Attempts381506
Yards1,4852,794
Yards / Carry3.95.5
Yards / Game123.8232.8
Touchdowns2032
Passing
Attempts423317
Completions269173
Completion %63.6%54.6%
Yards3,1312,224
Yards / Attempt7.47.0
Touchdowns1618
Interceptions115
Passer Rating133.05129.09
Total Offense
Plays804823
Yards4,6165,018
Yards / Play5.76.1
Yards / Game384.7418.2
Punt Returns
Returns3013
Yards247198
Average8.215.2
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns296
Yards55870
Average19.211.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5458
Yards2,4232,373
Average44.940.9
Interception Returns
Returns511
Yards49138
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2113
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties8278
Yards748745
Yards / Game62.362.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4530:15
Third Downs
Attempts154171
Conversions4770
Conversion %30.5%40.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3022
Conversions1514
Conversion %50.0%63.6%
Red Zone
Trips3943
Scores (TD + FG)3540
Score %89.7%93.0%
Touchdowns2532
TD %64.1%74.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1913
Made1410
Pct73.7%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3353
Made3153
Pct93.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts60
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →