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CMU
Central Michigan
ChippewasRun-HeavyMid-American Conference5-7#118 (-6.09)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
13· FOverall
Offense
37· DRating
54· CPer play
43· CConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
12· FPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.139
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.022
Defensive EPA/play
+0.105
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.083
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.02
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#100
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense55th
Opp-adjusted defense3th
Offensive EPA/play54th
Defensive EPA/play11th
Offensive success rate42th
Explosiveness51th
Defensive havoc9th
Points per drive43th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, run defense4102Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense3923South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense3784South Carolina2020OA +0.001 / -0.037similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive EPA3755Michigan2020OA +0.019 / -0.036similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate369
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan State | 7-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs New Hampshire | 45-42 | W | -7.8 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Notre Dame | 17-41 | L | +34.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 4 | @ South Alabama | 34-30 | W | +15.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Eastern Michigan | 26-23 | W | -7.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Buffalo | 13-37 | L | -3.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Akron | 17-10 | W | -12.0 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Ball State | 17-24 | L | -4.5 | L | 41.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Northern Illinois | 37-31 | W | +3.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 11 | @ Western Michigan | 28-38 | L | +11.0 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Ohio | 20-34 | L | +10.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 13 | vs Toledo | 17-32 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.023 | 56th | +0.100 | 12th |
| Red Zone | +0.263 | 93th | +0.181 | 12th |
| Third Down | +0.279 | 70th | +0.194 | 44th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.007 | 50th | +0.115 | 10th |
| First Half | -0.028 | 36th | +0.011 | 49th |
| Second Half | +0.076 | 78th | +0.188 | 1th |
| Early Downs | -0.109 | 18th | +0.126 | 4th |
| Passing Downs | +0.179 | 79th | +0.059 | 39th |
| Standard Downs | -0.072 | 23th | +0.121 | 2th |
| Goal to Go | +0.188 | 83th | +0.259 | 20th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
15.4%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
344.1
Pts/Drive
2.02
3rd Down%
34.3%
3&Out%
23.5%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 278 | 373 |
| Points / Game | 23.2 | 31.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 227 | 242 |
| Rushing | 110 | 101 |
| Passing | 90 | 120 |
| Penalty | 27 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 455 | 411 |
| Yards | 1,913 | 1,918 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 159.4 | 159.8 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 325 | 360 |
| Completions | 183 | 223 |
| Completion % | 56.3% | 61.9% |
| Yards | 2,216 | 2,967 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 122.04 | 146.73 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 780 | 771 |
| Yards | 4,129 | 4,885 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 344.1 | 407.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 18 |
| Yards | 68 | 146 |
| Average | 4.5 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 43 | 23 |
| Yards | 868 | 465 |
| Average | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,681 | 1,854 |
| Average | 43.2 | 40.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 11 |
| Yards | 26 | 166 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 7 |
| Lost | 5 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 87 |
| Yards | 697 | 764 |
| Yards / Game | 58.1 | 63.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:13 | 29:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 155 |
| Conversions | 57 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 34.3% | 36.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 24 |
| Conversions | 16 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 69.6% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 37 |
| Score % | 83.8% | 92.5% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 30 |
| TD % | 73.0% | 75.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 22 |
| Made | 7 | 15 |
| Pct | 50.0% | 68.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 44 |
| Made | 31 | 42 |
| Pct | 93.9% | 95.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.