Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
MICH

Michigan

WolverinesBalanced
Big Ten Conference2-4#77 (-1.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
65· CRating
71· BPer play
54· CConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
20· DPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.081
Defensive EPA/play
+0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
50.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.027
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.151
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.28

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.89
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.82
own return game
Return Defense
+0.59
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#27
market 50 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
63th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
60th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Central Michigan2023OA +0.010 / -0.139similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3702Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3673Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3644Nevada2024OA +0.014 / -0.050similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3645Kentucky2026OA +0.020 / -0.080similar: pass defense, run defense, passing offense351

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8@ Minnesota49-24W-3.0W54.5O
9vs Michigan State24-27L-24.5L52U
10@ Indiana21-38L-3.0L54.5O
11vs Wisconsin11-49L+4.0L54.25O
12@ Rutgers48-42W-12.0L52O
13vs Penn State17-27L-1.5L58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-5
16.7%
O/U Record
4-2
66.7%
Straight Up
2-4
33.3%
Home ATS0-3
Away ATS1-2
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off60thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off59thPass Def11thRush Def34thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07871th+0.10916th
Red Zone+0.33398th+0.18214th
Third Down+0.12359th+0.10741th
No Garbage Time+0.07671th+0.10719th
First Half-0.08124th+0.06338th
Second Half+0.23698th+0.15613th
Early Downs+0.13092th+0.03340th
Passing Downs+0.16376th+0.22311th
Standard Downs+0.02860th+0.05034th
Goal to Go+0.41190th+0.04750th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.3%Rush 44.7%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
12.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
381.8
Pts/Drive
2.28
3rd Down%
36.0%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points170207
Points / Game28.334.5
First Downs
Total116144
Rushing3657
Passing7173
Penalty914
Rushing
Attempts172258
Yards7891,073
Yards / Carry4.64.2
Yards / Game131.5178.8
Touchdowns1214
Passing
Attempts213208
Completions123123
Completion %57.7%59.1%
Yards1,5021,503
Yards / Attempt7.17.2
Touchdowns912
Interceptions42
Passer Rating127.17136.95
Total Offense
Plays385466
Yards2,2912,576
Yards / Play6.05.5
Yards / Game381.8429.3
Punt Returns
Returns76
Yards4729
Average6.74.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns217
Yards520144
Average24.820.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts2827
Yards1,1921,163
Average42.643.1
Interception Returns
Returns24
Yards1891
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles43
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties3532
Yards345288
Yards / Game57.548.0
Time of Possession
Per Game25:3734:23
Third Downs
Attempts7593
Conversions2743
Conversion %36.0%46.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts98
Conversions45
Conversion %44.4%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips2127
Scores (TD + FG)1725
Score %81.0%92.6%
Touchdowns1620
TD %76.2%74.1%
Field Goals
Attempts911
Made38
Pct33.3%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2125
Made2125
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →