Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#63 (+0.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
69· CRating
47· CPer play
47· CConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
14· FPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.075
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.070
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.007
Defensive EPA/play
+0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.100
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#63
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#113
model 50 higher
Recruiting Rank
#31
recruiting 32 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
14th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
18th
Points per drive
41th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4252Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3943UL Monroe2022OA +0.020 / -0.119similar: TD drive rate, run defense, havoc rate3684Florida2023OA +0.082 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense3665Michigan2020OA +0.019 / -0.036similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense364

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Michigan23-6W----
2vs Boston College42-40W-3.5L45.5O
3vs Youngstown State41-24W----
4@ USC31-45L+19.0W55.5O
6@ Nebraska27-38L+13.5W43.5O
7vs UCLA13-38L-7.5L53U
8@ Indiana13-38L+27.5W56.5U
9vs Michigan20-31L+14.0W47.5O
10@ Minnesota20-23L+3.0P29.5O
12vs Penn State10-28L+9.5L52.5U
13@ Iowa17-20L+12.5W32.5O
14vs Maryland38-28W-4.0W49O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4-1
60.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
WPLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off29thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off27thPass Def16thRush Def21thRed Zone Def12th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01543th+0.07617th
Red Zone+0.15583th+0.19012th
Third Down-0.03727th+0.14927th
No Garbage Time-0.02041th+0.09214th
First Half-0.04833th+0.05225th
Second Half+0.01861th+0.10013th
Early Downs-0.02344th+0.06913th
Passing Downs+0.04564th+0.10216th
Standard Downs-0.04729th+0.06321th
Goal to Go+0.04759th+0.3337th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
10.2
Havoc Rate
15.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
345.5
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
34.8%
3&Out%
23.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points295359
Points / Game24.629.9
First Downs
Total227234
Rushing8599
Passing115117
Penalty2718
Rushing
Attempts390394
Yards1,4741,768
Yards / Carry3.84.5
Yards / Game122.8147.3
Touchdowns1621
Passing
Attempts378367
Completions240242
Completion %63.5%65.9%
Yards2,6722,776
Yards / Attempt7.17.6
Touchdowns2023
Interceptions65
Passer Rating137.16147.43
Total Offense
Plays768761
Yards4,1464,544
Yards / Play5.46.0
Yards / Game345.5378.7
Punt Returns
Returns1226
Yards150398
Average12.515.3
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns1317
Yards325280
Average25.016.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5547
Yards2,5352,024
Average46.143.1
Interception Returns
Returns56
Yards057
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1315
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties6466
Yards544522
Yards / Game45.343.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1829:42
Third Downs
Attempts158151
Conversions5563
Conversion %34.8%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2723
Conversions1211
Conversion %44.4%47.8%
Red Zone
Trips4248
Scores (TD + FG)3841
Score %90.5%85.4%
Touchdowns2732
TD %64.3%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1717
Made1211
Pct70.6%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3444
Made3344
Pct97.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →