Fourth Down Data
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ARK

Arkansas

RazorbacksBalanced
Southeastern Conference4-8#96 (-6.35)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
44· CRating
44· CPer play
36· DConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
7· FPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.035
Defensive EPA/play
+0.120
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
50.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.155
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.122
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 70 spots higher
17 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4222Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense3823Virginia Tech2018OA +0.023 / -0.095similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3774Western Michigan2024OA +0.021 / -0.047similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, pass defense3765Michigan2020OA +0.019 / -0.036similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, passing offense367

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida A&M49-7W-47.0L55.5O
2vs TCU7-28L+3.0L58U
4vs Texas A&M43-50L+2.0L58O
5vs New Mexico State42-24W-18.0P61O
6@ South Carolina22-48L-3.0L45O
7@ Alabama9-41L+37.0W53.5U
8vs Auburn20-52L+17.0L51O
9@ Ole Miss38-37W+3.0W62O
10vs Coastal Carolina39-38W-24.5L59O
11@ LSU10-33L+18.0L55U
12vs Mississippi State21-28L+14.0W56U
13vs Missouri45-48L+10.0W69.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off55thRed Zone Off97th3rd Down Off42thPass Def5thRush Def14thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01353th+0.1335th
Red Zone+0.34797th+0.2189th
Third Down-0.03942th+0.2448th
No Garbage Time-0.04639th+0.1249th
First Half+0.00359th+0.10917th
Second Half-0.02847th+0.1593th
Early Downs-0.00264th+0.02228th
Passing Downs+0.00759th+0.2325th
Standard Downs-0.02355th+0.08714th
Goal to Go+0.32586th+0.16820th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.4%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
373.4
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
41.8%
3&Out%
26.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansasOpponents
Scoring
Points345434
Points / Game28.836.2
First Downs
Total238257
Rushing110128
Passing108115
Penalty2014
Rushing
Attempts462469
Yards2,0162,353
Yards / Carry4.45.0
Yards / Game168.0196.1
Touchdowns2428
Passing
Attempts340346
Completions192205
Completion %56.5%59.2%
Yards2,4652,906
Yards / Attempt7.38.4
Touchdowns1823
Interceptions98
Passer Rating129.55147.11
Total Offense
Plays802815
Yards4,4815,259
Yards / Play5.66.5
Yards / Game373.4438.3
Punt Returns
Returns411
Yards5140
Average12.83.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4538
Yards957735
Average21.319.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5946
Yards2,2771,842
Average38.640.0
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards14394
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2120
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties5865
Yards505542
Yards / Game42.145.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2528:35
Third Downs
Attempts165162
Conversions6977
Conversion %41.8%47.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1815
Conversions910
Conversion %50.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4052
Scores (TD + FG)3548
Score %87.5%92.3%
Touchdowns3034
TD %75.0%65.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1119
Made815
Pct72.7%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4255
Made4153
Pct97.6%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →