Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#85 (-1.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
47· CRating
52· CPer play
31· DConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
17· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.095
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.082
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.12

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#30
recruiting 55 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
58th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
52th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
28th
Points per drive
43th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3762Charlotte2020OA +0.009 / -0.027similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3753Wake Forest2020OA +0.020 / -0.032similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3574Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3555Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA353

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida State24-3W+5.5W48.5O
2vs William & Mary62-17W-42.0W--
4@ Old Dominion35-49L-28.5L52.5O
5@ Duke31-14W+6.5W52U
6vs Notre Dame23-45L+6.5L55.5O
7@ North Carolina22-19W-6.5L57.5U
9vs Georgia Tech28-49L-3.0L58.5O
10vs Boston College21-31L+2.0L57U
11@ Pittsburgh22-52L+4.0L52O
12vs Miami14-38L+6.5L52P
13vs Virginia34-31W+5.0W49.5O
14vs Marshall41-20W-3.5W51.5O
18vs Cincinnati31-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-3-1
70.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off24thRush Off73thRed Zone Off74th3rd Down Off51thPass Def22thRush Def12thRed Zone Def52th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01252th+0.10812th
Red Zone+0.10474th+0.00252th
Third Down+0.05051th+0.19521th
No Garbage Time+0.00951th+0.09716th
First Half+0.04767th-0.00247th
Second Half-0.02140th+0.2362th
Early Downs+0.05071th+0.09910th
Passing Downs-0.06824th+0.11122th
Standard Downs+0.05473th+0.10712th
Goal to Go+0.05247th+0.11743th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.2%Rush 54.8%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
428.2
Pts/Drive
2.12
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
20.5%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points388403
Points / Game29.831.0
First Downs
Total290264
Rushing126122
Passing145120
Penalty1922
Rushing
Attempts520501
Yards2,2662,734
Yards / Carry4.45.5
Yards / Game174.3210.3
Touchdowns1933
Passing
Attempts429391
Completions250233
Completion %58.3%59.6%
Yards3,3002,969
Yards / Attempt7.77.6
Touchdowns2918
Interceptions107
Passer Rating140.54134.99
Total Offense
Plays949892
Yards5,5665,703
Yards / Play5.96.4
Yards / Game428.2438.7
Punt Returns
Returns2819
Yards175190
Average6.310.0
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns418
Yards928160
Average22.620.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6963
Yards2,9402,551
Average42.640.5
Interception Returns
Returns710
Yards27109
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2025
Lost612
Penalties
Penalties7585
Yards714587
Yards / Game54.945.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1329:47
Third Downs
Attempts193178
Conversions7269
Conversion %37.3%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2719
Conversions159
Conversion %55.6%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips4252
Scores (TD + FG)3841
Score %90.5%78.8%
Touchdowns2931
TD %69.0%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1916
Made1211
Pct63.2%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4853
Made4852
Pct100.0%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →