Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference1-0#99 (-4.03)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
26· DRating
55· CPer play
12· FConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
40· CRating
72· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.097
Defensive EPA/play
-0.242
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.5%
Def Success Rate
40.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.339
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.68
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.36
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
34th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
55th
Defensive EPA/play
73th
Offensive success rate
12th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense2992Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate2963Miami (OH)2018OA +0.006 / -0.018similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate2854Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA2815Notre Dame2017OA +0.053 / +0.157similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate278

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeast Missouri State38-10W-30.3L52.5U
2@ Iowa------
3vs Bowling Green------
4vs Utah------
5vs West Virginia------
6@ BYU------
8@ Arizona------
9vs Oklahoma State------
10@ Baylor------
11vs Cincinnati------
12@ UCF------
13vs Kansas State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off36thRed Zone Off72th3rd Down Off46thPass Def37thRush Def95thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06855th-0.22575th
Red Zone+0.30672th+1.3692th
Third Down+0.04046th+0.39320th
No Garbage Time-0.00538th-0.24274th
First Half+0.17166th-0.26774th
Second Half-0.06437th-0.17764th
Early Downs+0.01846th-0.53097th
Passing Downs+0.22864th+0.04537th
Standard Downs-0.04636th-0.45895th
Goal to Go+0.80986th+1.36910th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.4%Rush 64.6%
Havoc/Game
21.0
Havoc Rate
30.9%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
303.0
Pts/Drive
3.45
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points3810
Points / Game38.010.0
First Downs
Total1514
Rushing67
Passing66
Penalty31
Rushing
Attempts3145
Yards10867
Yards / Carry3.51.5
Yards / Game108.067.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts1722
Completions917
Completion %52.9%77.3%
Yards195142
Yards / Attempt11.56.5
Touchdowns20
Interceptions01
Passer Rating188.12122.40
Total Offense
Plays4867
Yards303209
Yards / Play6.33.1
Yards / Game303.0209.0
Punt Returns
Returns31
Yards3313
Average11.013.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards260
Average26.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts55
Yards189227
Average37.845.4
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles14
Lost12
Penalties
Penalties47
Yards4057
Yards / Game40.057.0
Time of Possession
Per Game23:0836:52
Third Downs
Attempts1016
Conversions45
Conversion %40.0%31.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts03
Conversions02
Conversion %—66.7%
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)51
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns41
TD %80.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made11
Pct100.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts51
Made51
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →