Fourth Down Data
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UCF

UCF

KnightsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference1-0#23 (+6.84)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall
Offense
66· CRating
60· CPer play
64· CConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
87· BPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.046
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.123
Defensive EPA/play
-0.492
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.3%
Def Success Rate
31.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
15.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.615
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.82
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.45
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
78th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4092Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: havoc rate, run defense, turnover rate3983App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, run defense3754Cincinnati2020OA +0.022 / +0.059similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3755Oregon State2022OA +0.047 / +0.105similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense369

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bethune-Cookman73-6W-42.5W58.5O
2@ Pittsburgh------
3vs Georgia State------
4vs TCU------
5@ Houston------
6@ Oklahoma State------
8vs BYU------
9vs Baylor------
10@ Kansas------
11vs Arizona State------
12vs Iowa State------
13@ Colorado------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off26thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off54thPass Def58thRush Def97thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11466th-0.34589th
Red Zone+0.14255th-0.26761th
Third Down+0.14554th-0.36275th
No Garbage Time-0.02336th-0.50093th
First Half-0.02337th-0.50090th
Second Half+0.29484th-0.14258th
Early Downs-0.02138th-0.56598th
Passing Downs+0.70496th-0.15658th
Standard Downs-0.11926th-0.53497th
Goal to Go+0.52169th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.7%Rush 63.3%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
26.2%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
4.0
Yards/Game
560.0
Pts/Drive
4.80
3rd Down%
62.5%
3&Out%
20.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points736
Points / Game73.06.0
First Downs
Total269
Rushing145
Passing114
Penalty10
Rushing
Attempts3840
Yards360107
Yards / Carry9.52.7
Yards / Game360.0107.0
Touchdowns70
Passing
Attempts2220
Completions1510
Completion %68.2%50.0%
Yards20074
Yards / Attempt9.13.7
Touchdowns21
Interceptions11
Passer Rating165.4587.58
Total Offense
Plays6060
Yards560181
Yards / Play9.33.0
Yards / Game560.0181.0
Punt Returns
Returns60
Yards1130
Average18.8—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns13
Yards5746
Average57.015.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts211
Yards95410
Average47.537.3
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards4733
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties611
Yards5558
Yards / Game55.058.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0531:55
Third Downs
Attempts816
Conversions53
Conversion %62.5%18.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts00
Conversions00
Conversion %——
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)51
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns41
TD %80.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts100
Made100
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →