Fourth Down Data
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SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference5-7#88 (-1.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
23· DPer play
13· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
46· CPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.075
Defensive EPA/play
+0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.136
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
46th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
45th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Washington State2022OA -0.044 / +0.068similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3452Rutgers2020OA -0.045 / -0.014similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, run defense3433California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3374Oregon State2026OA +0.042 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, turnover rate3365Illinois2019OA -0.087 / +0.006similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate334

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ North Texas23-46L+3.5L70.5U
2vs TCU12-42L+23.5L59.5U
3@ Michigan20-45L+37.0W54.5O
4vs Navy31-30W+6.5W57.5O
5vs Houston Christian63-27W-44.5L--
6@ UCF20-48L+25.0L73.5U
8@ Tulane27-23W+7.0W55.5U
9vs Cincinnati20-26L+9.5W50U
10vs Houston45-31W+14.0W71O
11@ UConn62-50W-18.0L66O
12vs Memphis18-28L+7.5L74.5U
13@ Tulsa24-27L-2.5L52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off21thRush Off44thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off39thPass Def12thRush Def70thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03831th+0.01844th
Red Zone+0.10575th+0.11429th
Third Down+0.01239th+0.25714th
No Garbage Time-0.07023th-0.01252th
First Half-0.08920th-0.08973th
Second Half+0.01453th+0.12512th
Early Downs-0.06424th-0.10687th
Passing Downs-0.08021th+0.16812th
Standard Downs-0.01144th-0.06170th
Goal to Go+0.37790th+0.27419th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.9%Rush 46.1%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
387.2
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
33.0%
3&Out%
26.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points365423
Points / Game30.435.3
First Downs
Total240280
Rushing75132
Passing135129
Penalty3019
Rushing
Attempts401547
Yards1,3862,357
Yards / Carry3.54.3
Yards / Game115.5196.4
Touchdowns1722
Passing
Attempts468384
Completions268241
Completion %57.3%62.8%
Yards3,2602,795
Yards / Attempt7.07.3
Touchdowns2823
Interceptions811
Passer Rating132.10137.94
Total Offense
Plays869931
Yards4,6465,152
Yards / Play5.35.5
Yards / Game387.2429.3
Punt Returns
Returns2217
Yards184166
Average8.49.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4134
Yards1,023778
Average25.022.9
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts7053
Yards2,7882,358
Average39.844.5
Interception Returns
Returns118
Yards83315
Touchdowns04
Fumbles
Fumbles2122
Lost711
Penalties
Penalties6381
Yards550799
Yards / Game45.866.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1432:46
Third Downs
Attempts185197
Conversions6194
Conversion %33.0%47.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3421
Conversions2014
Conversion %58.8%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4747
Scores (TD + FG)3940
Score %83.0%85.1%
Touchdowns3031
TD %63.8%66.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1422
Made1115
Pct78.6%68.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4351
Made4050
Pct93.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts52
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →