Fourth Down Data
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RUTG

Rutgers

Scarlet KnightsBalanced
Big Ten Conference3-6#74 (-1.16)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
17· DRating
13· FPer play
12· FConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
39· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.045
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.129
Defensive EPA/play
+0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
48.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.180
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.198
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.80
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.42
own return game
Return Defense
+0.66
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#101
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
35th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
52th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Temple2020OA -0.032 / -0.019similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3942Maryland2024OA -0.026 / -0.007similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3653UL Monroe2021OA -0.153 / -0.028similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3444SMU2018OA -0.058 / -0.007similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, run defense3435Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense342

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8@ Michigan State38-27W+13.5W44.5O
9vs Indiana21-37L+11.0L53.5O
10@ Ohio State27-49L+37.5W64.5O
11vs Illinois20-23L-6.5L52U
12vs Michigan42-48L+12.0W52O
13@ Purdue37-30W+11.0W62O
14vs Penn State7-23L+11.5L52.5U
15@ Maryland27-24W+6.5W57.75U
16vs Nebraska21-28L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-4
55.6%
O/U Record
5-4
55.6%
Straight Up
3-6
33.3%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off48thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off48thPass Def38thRush Def59thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07019th+0.03248th
Red Zone+0.18983th+0.10727th
Third Down+0.05148th+0.14731th
No Garbage Time-0.12813th+0.04940th
First Half-0.2443th-0.04672th
Second Half+0.09177th+0.12120th
Early Downs-0.07124th-0.01059th
Passing Downs-0.18113th+0.09438th
Standard Downs-0.00148th+0.00159th
Goal to Go-0.16125th+0.16630th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
335.3
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
34.0%
3&Out%
27.7%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRutgersOpponents
Scoring
Points240289
Points / Game26.732.1
First Downs
Total171213
Rushing7092
Passing8398
Penalty1823
Rushing
Attempts342406
Yards1,2631,833
Yards / Carry3.74.5
Yards / Game140.3203.7
Touchdowns1314
Passing
Attempts316281
Completions198189
Completion %62.7%67.3%
Yards1,7552,209
Yards / Attempt5.67.9
Touchdowns1421
Interceptions98
Passer Rating118.23152.26
Total Offense
Plays658687
Yards3,0184,042
Yards / Play4.65.9
Yards / Game335.3449.1
Punt Returns
Returns109
Yards9933
Average9.93.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3328
Yards849562
Average25.720.1
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts4837
Yards2,0621,515
Average43.040.9
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards5457
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost511
Penalties
Penalties6766
Yards548579
Yards / Game60.964.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0931:51
Third Downs
Attempts144129
Conversions4950
Conversion %34.0%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2316
Conversions1110
Conversion %47.8%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips2738
Scores (TD + FG)2434
Score %88.9%89.5%
Touchdowns1726
TD %63.0%68.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1318
Made1112
Pct84.6%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2235
Made2135
Pct95.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts81
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →