Fourth Down Data
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MD

Maryland

TerrapinsBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#99 (-3.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
32· DRating
24· DPer play
24· DConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
38· DPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.066
Defensive EPA/play
+0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.188
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#88
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#33
recruiting 66 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Maryland ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
24th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate4192Auburn2026OA -0.027 / -0.006similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, run defense4043Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3884Rutgers2020OA -0.045 / -0.014similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3655Temple2020OA -0.032 / -0.019similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense352

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UConn50-7W-20.0W45O
2vs Michigan State24-27L-9.0L45O
3@ Virginia27-13W-2.5W57.5U
4vs Villanova38-20W-17.5W43.5O
5@ Indiana28-42L+7.0L52O
7vs Northwestern10-37L----
8vs USC29-28W+7.5W56.5O
9@ Minnesota23-48L+4.0L45.5O
11@ Oregon18-39L+25.0W57.5U
12vs Rutgers17-31L-6.0L51U
13vs Iowa13-29L+6.5L45.5U
14@ Penn State7-44L+24.5L50O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off32thRush Off22thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off48thPass Def28thRush Def53thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05025th+0.01538th
Red Zone+0.05461th+0.16414th
Third Down+0.10048th+0.01367th
No Garbage Time-0.07322th+0.01740th
First Half-0.09821th+0.04328th
Second Half-0.00338th-0.01656th
Early Downs-0.07718th-0.01946th
Passing Downs-0.03432th+0.07628th
Standard Downs-0.05922th-0.01753th
Goal to Go+0.22781th+0.12227th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.2%Rush 42.8%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
14.5%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
386.1
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
20.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Maryland vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarylandOpponents
Scoring
Points284365
Points / Game23.730.4
First Downs
Total258252
Rushing7598
Passing157126
Penalty2628
Rushing
Attempts370427
Yards1,3251,641
Yards / Carry3.63.8
Yards / Game110.4136.8
Touchdowns1519
Passing
Attempts494384
Completions315240
Completion %63.8%62.5%
Yards3,3082,896
Yards / Attempt6.77.5
Touchdowns2122
Interceptions149
Passer Rating128.37140.07
Total Offense
Plays864811
Yards4,6334,537
Yards / Play5.45.6
Yards / Game386.1378.1
Punt Returns
Returns1217
Yards107109
Average8.96.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1720
Yards234467
Average13.823.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5353
Yards2,3432,364
Average44.244.6
Interception Returns
Returns914
Yards133197
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles913
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties7772
Yards703633
Yards / Game58.652.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0629:54
Third Downs
Attempts179167
Conversions7267
Conversion %40.2%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3118
Conversions1412
Conversion %45.2%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4249
Scores (TD + FG)3542
Score %83.3%85.7%
Touchdowns2731
TD %64.3%63.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1623
Made1119
Pct68.8%82.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3242
Made3142
Pct96.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →