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MTSU
Middle Tennessee
Blue RaidersBalancedConference USA4-8#85 (-2.39)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
37· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
21· DPer play
16· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
46· CPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
6· FRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.089
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.071
Defensive EPA/play
+0.021
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.2%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.091
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.83
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.00
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#82
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 9 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense16th
Opp-adjusted defense42th
Offensive EPA/play21th
Defensive EPA/play47th
Offensive success rate18th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc54th
Points per drive24th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, run defense4282Maryland2024OA -0.026 / -0.007similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate4193Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3854Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, turnover rate3845Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense378
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Alabama | 7-56 | L | +39.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 2 | @ Missouri | 19-23 | L | +21.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Murray State | 35-14 | W | -34.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Colorado State | 23-31 | L | +7.0 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Western Kentucky | 10-31 | L | -3.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 6 | vs Jacksonville State | 30-45 | L | -3.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Louisiana Tech | 31-23 | W | +14.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Liberty | 35-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ New Mexico State | 7-13 | L | +3.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Florida International | 40-6 | W | -11.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 12 | vs UTEP | 34-30 | W | -7.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Sam Houston | 20-23 | L | -3.5 | L | 50 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.056 | 24th | +0.031 | 40th |
| Red Zone | -0.242 | 6th | +0.038 | 37th |
| Third Down | +0.208 | 52th | +0.277 | 24th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.070 | 21th | +0.012 | 49th |
| First Half | -0.001 | 44th | -0.010 | 61th |
| Second Half | -0.113 | 13th | +0.076 | 24th |
| Early Downs | -0.112 | 17th | -0.066 | 64th |
| Passing Downs | -0.086 | 18th | +0.155 | 16th |
| Standard Downs | -0.038 | 41th | -0.032 | 57th |
| Goal to Go | -0.168 | 17th | +0.163 | 30th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.3%Rush 46.7%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
391.1
Pts/Drive
1.83
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
21.7%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 291 | 337 |
| Points / Game | 24.3 | 28.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 232 | 254 |
| Rushing | 82 | 97 |
| Passing | 126 | 134 |
| Penalty | 24 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 384 | 436 |
| Yards | 1,501 | 1,753 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 125.1 | 146.1 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 438 | 429 |
| Completions | 295 | 268 |
| Completion % | 67.4% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 3,192 | 2,994 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 139.96 | 131.98 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 822 | 865 |
| Yards | 4,693 | 4,747 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 391.1 | 395.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 21 |
| Yards | 120 | 189 |
| Average | 10.9 | 9.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 33 |
| Yards | 244 | 556 |
| Average | 17.4 | 16.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 62 |
| Yards | 2,893 | 2,578 |
| Average | 43.2 | 41.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 13 |
| Yards | 96 | 194 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 18 |
| Lost | 8 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 77 |
| Yards | 675 | 661 |
| Yards / Game | 56.3 | 55.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:32 | 31:18 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 181 | 181 |
| Conversions | 72 | 81 |
| Conversion % | 39.8% | 44.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 16 |
| Conversions | 10 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 45.5% | 56.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 39 |
| Score % | 81.1% | 84.8% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 30 |
| TD % | 54.1% | 65.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 16 |
| Made | 10 | 13 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 81.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 41 |
| Made | 35 | 38 |
| Pct | 94.6% | 92.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.