Fourth Down Data
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BC

Boston College

EaglesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#129 (-8.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall
Offense
6· FRating
10· FPer play
10· FConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
51· CPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.150
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.174
Defensive EPA/play
-0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.5%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.146
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.067
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.70
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#44
recruiting 85 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
10th
Defensive EPA/play
52th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
11th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA4952Temple2022OA -0.081 / +0.030similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate4233Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA4114Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4075Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate388

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rutgers21-22L-7.0L48U
2@ Virginia Tech10-27L+2.5L46U
3vs Maine38-17W-24.5L44.5O
4@ Florida State14-44L+17.5L48.5O
5vs Louisville34-33W+15.5W51O
6vs Clemson3-31L+20.5L48.5U
8@ Wake Forest15-43L+20.5L61U
9@ UConn3-13L+9.5W47O
10vs Duke31-38L----
11@ NC State21-20W+19.0W42U
12@ Notre Dame0-44L+21.0L45U
13vs Syracuse23-32L+10.5W47O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off7thRush Off16thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off6thPass Def34thRush Def64thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15711th-0.02352th
Red Zone+0.01452th+0.05534th
Third Down-0.2636th+0.06545th
No Garbage Time-0.16610th-0.03152th
First Half-0.1877th-0.04156th
Second Half-0.12915th-0.00440th
Early Downs-0.14013th-0.01445th
Passing Downs-0.1987th+0.03434th
Standard Downs-0.13116th-0.05764th
Goal to Go+0.29889th-0.06253th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.8%Rush 45.2%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
310.3
Pts/Drive
1.41
3rd Down%
32.8%
3&Out%
28.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoston CollegeOpponents
Scoring
Points213364
Points / Game17.830.3
First Downs
Total202239
Rushing6599
Passing121115
Penalty1625
Rushing
Attempts363458
Yards7592,009
Yards / Carry2.14.4
Yards / Game63.3167.4
Touchdowns625
Passing
Attempts440348
Completions262205
Completion %59.5%58.9%
Yards2,9652,534
Yards / Attempt6.77.3
Touchdowns2119
Interceptions147
Passer Rating125.54134.07
Total Offense
Plays803806
Yards3,7244,543
Yards / Play4.65.6
Yards / Game310.3378.6
Punt Returns
Returns1512
Yards8571
Average5.75.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3022
Yards646608
Average21.527.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7360
Yards2,9392,536
Average40.342.3
Interception Returns
Returns714
Yards8737
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost127
Penalties
Penalties7281
Yards582623
Yards / Game48.551.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5730:54
Third Downs
Attempts174163
Conversions5760
Conversion %32.8%36.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1814
Conversions83
Conversion %44.4%21.4%
Red Zone
Trips3248
Scores (TD + FG)2642
Score %81.3%87.5%
Touchdowns1832
TD %56.3%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1721
Made918
Pct52.9%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2541
Made2438
Pct96.0%92.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →