← All Teams
MSU
Michigan State
SpartansBalancedBig Ten Conference4-8#104 (-4.52)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
23· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
5· FPer play
27· DConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
37· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.144
Defensive EPA/play
+0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.184
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.00
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#115
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#33
recruiting 71 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense19th
Opp-adjusted defense34th
Offensive EPA/play5th
Defensive EPA/play37th
Offensive success rate15th
Explosiveness10th
Defensive havoc49th
Points per drive6th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Duke2020OA -0.072 / -0.025similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4362Kent State2017OA -0.276 / -0.054similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate4183Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA4114Bowling Green2021OA -0.136 / +0.005similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense4065Akron2023OA -0.232 / -0.010similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, passing offense406
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Central Michigan | 31-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Richmond | 45-14 | W | -30.0 | W | 45 | O |
| 3 | vs Washington | 7-41 | L | +16.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Maryland | 9-31 | L | +7.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Iowa | 16-26 | L | +12.3 | W | 36.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Rutgers | 24-27 | L | +5.0 | W | 40.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Michigan | 0-49 | L | +24.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Minnesota | 12-27 | L | +7.0 | L | 40.25 | U |
| 10 | vs Nebraska | 20-17 | W | +3.0 | W | 34.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Ohio State | 3-38 | L | +31.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Indiana | 24-21 | W | +21.0 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Penn State | 0-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.172 | 2th | +0.026 | 43th |
| Red Zone | -0.066 | 35th | +0.005 | 48th |
| Third Down | -0.002 | 16th | +0.106 | 67th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.143 | 4th | +0.040 | 36th |
| First Half | -0.147 | 5th | +0.123 | 13th |
| Second Half | -0.199 | 4th | -0.079 | 80th |
| Early Downs | -0.262 | 1th | -0.020 | 42th |
| Passing Downs | -0.101 | 15th | +0.036 | 47th |
| Standard Downs | -0.215 | 1th | +0.021 | 37th |
| Goal to Go | +0.065 | 59th | -0.255 | 80th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.6%Rush 49.4%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
10.6
Yards/Game
289.3
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
30.9%
3&Out%
26.3%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 191 | 340 |
| Points / Game | 15.9 | 28.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 199 | 254 |
| Rushing | 74 | 105 |
| Passing | 103 | 122 |
| Penalty | 22 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 440 |
| Yards | 1,074 | 1,812 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 89.5 | 151.0 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 379 | 366 |
| Completions | 221 | 226 |
| Completion % | 58.3% | 61.7% |
| Yards | 2,398 | 2,854 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.3 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 116.79 | 143.97 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 749 | 806 |
| Yards | 3,472 | 4,666 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 289.3 | 388.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 18 |
| Yards | 89 | 195 |
| Average | 6.8 | 10.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 8 |
| Yards | 302 | 180 |
| Average | 17.8 | 22.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 69 | 54 |
| Yards | 3,138 | 2,333 |
| Average | 45.5 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 13 |
| Yards | 22 | 146 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 11 |
| Lost | 9 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 84 | 56 |
| Yards | 728 | 575 |
| Yards / Game | 60.7 | 47.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:08 | 31:52 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 162 | 154 |
| Conversions | 50 | 54 |
| Conversion % | 30.9% | 35.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 14 |
| Conversions | 10 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 71.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 25 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 22 | 42 |
| Score % | 88.0% | 82.4% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 32 |
| TD % | 64.0% | 62.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 24 |
| Made | 13 | 15 |
| Pct | 72.2% | 62.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 39 |
| Made | 20 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.