Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference2-9#115 (-7.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
9· FPer play
17· DConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
23· DRating
27· DPer play
49· CConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.149
Defensive EPA/play
+0.074
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.223
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.37
own return game
Return Defense
+0.45
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#79
market 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
recruiting 86 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
9th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
20th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
13th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, pass defense4342Temple2020OA -0.032 / -0.019similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3993Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3794New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3765Arkansas2018OA -0.090 / -0.015similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate375

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ Notre Dame13-27L+19.5W53.5U
3vs Boston College6-26L-6.0L51.5U
4@ Virginia20-38L+5.5L45.5O
5vs Virginia Tech31-38L+12.0W54O
6@ Syracuse38-24W-2.0W51.5O
7@ NC State20-31L+4.5L59.5U
9vs Charlotte53-19W-9.5W56O
10vs North Carolina24-56L+11.0L64O
13@ Georgia Tech33-56L0.0L58O
14vs Miami0-48L+14.5L59.5U
15@ Florida State35-56L+3.5L57O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
2-9
18.2%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off23thRush Off9thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off10thPass Def34thRush Def30thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11411th+0.07428th
Red Zone-0.12420th+0.12523th
Third Down-0.22510th+0.05156th
No Garbage Time-0.14710th+0.06133th
First Half-0.14513th-0.02162th
Second Half-0.07920th+0.1809th
Early Downs-0.05033th+0.03339th
Passing Downs-0.08623th+0.10734th
Standard Downs-0.1299th+0.05730th
Goal to Go-0.23416th+0.5005th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.2%Rush 52.8%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
-1.7
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
379.4
Pts/Drive
1.54
3rd Down%
38.7%
3&Out%
21.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points273419
Points / Game24.838.1
First Downs
Total237247
Rushing93121
Passing118111
Penalty2615
Rushing
Attempts438462
Yards1,7242,345
Yards / Carry3.95.1
Yards / Game156.7213.2
Touchdowns1931
Passing
Attempts391321
Completions220184
Completion %56.3%57.3%
Yards2,4492,548
Yards / Attempt6.37.9
Touchdowns1122
Interceptions199
Passer Rating108.44141.01
Total Offense
Plays829783
Yards4,1734,893
Yards / Play5.06.2
Yards / Game379.4444.8
Punt Returns
Returns1816
Yards17012
Average9.40.8
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3525
Yards704548
Average20.121.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5453
Yards2,2762,175
Average42.141.0
Interception Returns
Returns919
Yards36207
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2616
Lost2011
Penalties
Penalties6259
Yards562587
Yards / Game51.153.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3431:26
Third Downs
Attempts168155
Conversions6564
Conversion %38.7%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions1114
Conversion %47.8%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3544
Scores (TD + FG)2837
Score %80.0%84.1%
Touchdowns1830
TD %51.4%68.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1513
Made1310
Pct86.7%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3254
Made3053
Pct93.8%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →