Fourth Down Data
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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdBalanced
Sun Belt Conference0-1#126 (-9.63)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
9· FPer play
7· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
11· FPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.237
Defensive EPA/play
+0.233
lower = better
Off Success Rate
35.2%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
11.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.471
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.24
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
9th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: pass defense, run defense, offensive success rate4532Sam Houston2025OA -0.185 / -0.124similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense4223Kent State2026OA -0.042 / -0.069similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, takeaway rate4204Oklahoma State2025OA -0.103 / -0.061similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate4075Florida International2022OA -0.160 / -0.147similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate397

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Penn State0-45L+23.5L52U
2vs Middle Tennessee------
3@ Missouri State------
4vs Gardner-Webb------
5@ James Madison------
6vs Coastal Carolina------
8vs South Alabama------
9@ Old Dominion------
10@ Georgia Southern------
11vs App State------
12vs Georgia State------
13@ UL Monroe------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off2thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off6thPass Def35thRush Def19thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.3702th+0.10019th
Red Zone-0th-0.07547th
Third Down-0.8526th+0.20627th
No Garbage Time-0.23710th+0.23311th
First Half-0.19818th+0.18515th
Second Half-0.6410th+0.02337th
Early Downs-0.20415th+0.06024th
Passing Downs-0.18525th+0.05535th
Standard Downs-0.4792th+0.11519th
Goal to Go-0th-1.06098th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.9%Rush 48.1%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
10.8%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
4.0
Yards/Game
147.0
Pts/Drive
0.00
3rd Down%
9.1%
3&Out%
57.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points045
Points / Game0.045.0
First Downs
Total1125
Rushing29
Passing615
Penalty31
Rushing
Attempts2645
Yards44163
Yards / Carry1.73.6
Yards / Game44.0163.0
Touchdowns02
Passing
Attempts2827
Completions1920
Completion %67.9%74.1%
Yards103324
Yards / Attempt3.712.0
Touchdowns04
Interceptions10
Passer Rating91.61223.76
Total Offense
Plays5472
Yards147487
Yards / Play2.76.8
Yards / Game147.0487.0
Punt Returns
Returns03
Yards041
Average—13.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns31
Yards4134
Average13.734.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts84
Yards341173
Average42.643.3
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties44
Yards4545
Yards / Game45.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game23:4736:13
Third Downs
Attempts1116
Conversions18
Conversion %9.1%50.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts12
Conversions02
Conversion %0.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips05
Scores (TD + FG)04
Score %—80.0%
Touchdowns03
TD %—60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made01
Pct0.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts06
Made06
Pct—100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →