Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UK

Kentucky

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference4-8#63 (+1.28)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
30· DRating
10· FPer play
48· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
61· CPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.138
Defensive EPA/play
-0.032
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.105
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.053
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#63
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#64
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 40 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
10th
Defensive EPA/play
61th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
16th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4212Nevada2025OA -0.138 / -0.050similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3433South Carolina2021OA -0.162 / +0.059similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3374TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3375Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate330

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southern Miss31-0W-28.0W50U
2vs South Carolina6-31L-9.0L46U
3vs Georgia12-13L+24.0W45U
4vs Ohio41-6W-20.0W42O
5@ Ole Miss20-17W+17.0W54U
7vs Vanderbilt13-20L-13.5L46U
8@ Florida20-48L-1.0L42.5O
9vs Auburn10-24L-2.5L42.5U
10@ Tennessee18-28L+16.5W45.5O
12vs Murray State48-6W-41.0W54.5U
13@ Texas14-31L+20.5W47U
14vs Louisville14-41L+4.0L48.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off3thRush Off37thRed Zone Off7th3rd Down Off4thPass Def57thRush Def63thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11910th-0.03667th
Red Zone-0.2487th-0.20790th
Third Down-0.2474th+0.04559th
No Garbage Time-0.13510th-0.02860th
First Half-0.12714th-0.10681th
Second Half-0.10913th+0.03834th
Early Downs-0.01751th-0.06566th
Passing Downs-0.2763th-0.01757th
Standard Downs-0.03137th-0.04563th
Goal to Go-0.21618th-0.11672th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.3%Rush 58.7%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
330.4
Pts/Drive
1.70
3rd Down%
33.8%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points247265
Points / Game20.622.1
First Downs
Total233215
Rushing115104
Passing9194
Penalty2717
Rushing
Attempts443436
Yards1,7471,942
Yards / Carry3.94.5
Yards / Game145.6161.8
Touchdowns1120
Passing
Attempts312279
Completions167177
Completion %53.5%63.4%
Yards2,2182,204
Yards / Attempt7.17.9
Touchdowns159
Interceptions1710
Passer Rating118.21133.27
Total Offense
Plays755715
Yards3,9654,146
Yards / Play5.35.8
Yards / Game330.4345.5
Punt Returns
Returns1612
Yards13039
Average8.13.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3016
Yards613285
Average20.417.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4449
Yards1,9372,232
Average44.045.6
Interception Returns
Returns1017
Yards99268
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2519
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties7581
Yards625662
Yards / Game52.155.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3128:23
Third Downs
Attempts142142
Conversions4857
Conversion %33.8%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts259
Conversions116
Conversion %44.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3448
Scores (TD + FG)2734
Score %79.4%70.8%
Touchdowns1823
TD %52.9%47.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1620
Made1514
Pct93.8%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2731
Made2631
Pct96.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →