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NEV
Nevada
Wolf PackBalancedMountain West Conference3-9#119 (-13.67)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
12· FOverall
Offense
10· FRating
4· FPer play
21· DConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
48· CPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.138
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.197
Defensive EPA/play
-0.012
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.184
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.169
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.21
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#119
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#120
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense7th
Opp-adjusted defense30th
Offensive EPA/play4th
Defensive EPA/play48th
Offensive success rate30th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc38th
Points per drive3th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1BYU2017OA -0.196 / +0.018similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate4042Texas State2019OA -0.181 / -0.036similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3573San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3454Colorado State2022OA -0.168 / -0.033similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3435Kentucky2024OA -0.042 / +0.015similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA343
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Penn State | 11-46 | L | +43.3 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Sacramento State | 20-17 | W | +3.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 3 | vs Middle Tennessee | 13-14 | L | -12.5 | L | 43 | U |
| 4 | @ Western Kentucky | 16-31 | L | +7.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Fresno State | 17-20 | L | +13.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 7 | vs San Diego State | 10-44 | L | +7.0 | L | 42.5 | O |
| 8 | @ New Mexico | 22-24 | L | +21.0 | P | 51 | U |
| 9 | vs Boise State | 3-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Utah State | 14-51 | L | +9.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 12 | vs San José State | 55-10 | W | -21.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Wyoming | 13-7 | W | +6.5 | W | 40 | U |
| 14 | vs UNLV | 17-42 | L | +7.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
PLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.136 | 6th | -0.014 | 48th |
| Red Zone | -0.343 | 4th | -0.033 | 56th |
| Third Down | -0.254 | 6th | +0.053 | 53th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.183 | 4th | -0.011 | 47th |
| First Half | -0.227 | 1th | -0.003 | 44th |
| Second Half | -0.045 | 35th | -0.025 | 54th |
| Early Downs | -0.091 | 16th | +0.033 | 24th |
| Passing Downs | -0.274 | 3th | -0.107 | 78th |
| Standard Downs | -0.056 | 25th | +0.033 | 33th |
| Goal to Go | -0.507 | 2th | -0.006 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.2%Rush 57.8%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
9.7
Yards/Game
302.2
Pts/Drive
1.21
3rd Down%
31.8%
3&Out%
18.9%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Nevada | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 211 | 330 |
| Points / Game | 17.6 | 27.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 207 | 241 |
| Rushing | 96 | 101 |
| Passing | 88 | 117 |
| Penalty | 23 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 419 | 429 |
| Yards | 1,842 | 1,795 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 153.5 | 149.6 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 306 | 356 |
| Completions | 181 | 231 |
| Completion % | 59.2% | 64.9% |
| Yards | 1,784 | 2,643 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.8 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 107.80 | 132.19 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 725 | 785 |
| Yards | 3,626 | 4,438 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 302.2 | 369.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 13 |
| Yards | 136 | 118 |
| Average | 7.6 | 9.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 9 |
| Yards | 396 | 282 |
| Average | 24.8 | 31.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 45 |
| Yards | 2,186 | 2,098 |
| Average | 44.6 | 46.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 17 |
| Yards | 188 | 170 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 9 |
| Lost | 10 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 63 | 84 |
| Yards | 541 | 709 |
| Yards / Game | 45.1 | 59.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:11 | 29:49 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 154 | 161 |
| Conversions | 49 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 31.8% | 37.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 23 |
| Conversions | 13 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 54.2% | 65.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 36 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 26 | 41 |
| Score % | 72.2% | 83.7% |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 29 |
| TD % | 41.7% | 59.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 23 |
| Made | 19 | 17 |
| Pct | 76.0% | 73.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 39 |
| Made | 20 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.