Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference3-9#126 (-16.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
6· FRating
8· FPer play
5· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
36· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.181
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.168
Defensive EPA/play
+0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.4%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.205
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.043
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.89
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.76
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#126
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
3th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
8th
Defensive EPA/play
37th
Offensive success rate
5th
Explosiveness
7th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: passing offense, havoc rate, takeaway rate4792Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive success rate3993Northwestern2022OA -0.118 / -0.038similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, takeaway rate3974BYU2017OA -0.196 / +0.018similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3905UConn2021OA -0.200 / -0.127similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, rushing offense377

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas A&M7-41L+33.5L56.5U
2vs Wyoming14-23L+7.5L48U
3@ SMU17-47L+17.5L62O
4vs Georgia State37-34W-3.0P62.5O
5vs Nicholls State24-3W-2.5W55U
7vs UL Monroe14-24L+3.5L60.5U
9@ Arkansas State14-38L+11.5L60.5U
10@ Louisiana3-31L+23.5L55.5U
11vs South Alabama30-28W-7.0L41O
12vs Troy27-63L+7.0L64.5O
13@ App State13-35L+28.0W51U
14@ Coastal Carolina21-24L+7.0W52U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off3thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off26thPass Def29thRush Def52thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1696th+0.02537th
Red Zone-0.25211th+0.00247th
Third Down-0.07626th+0.05044th
No Garbage Time-0.1747th+0.04433th
First Half-0.2101th+0.00549th
Second Half-0.12518th+0.04729th
Early Downs-0.1964th-0.00154th
Passing Downs-0.13416th+0.09029th
Standard Downs-0.1923th-0.00452th
Goal to Go-0.6542th+0.20215th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.4%Rush 42.6%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
13.4%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.2
Yards/Game
317.8
Pts/Drive
1.41
3rd Down%
34.1%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points221391
Points / Game18.432.6
First Downs
Total203259
Rushing63134
Passing118104
Penalty2221
Rushing
Attempts327551
Yards9212,614
Yards / Carry2.84.7
Yards / Game76.8217.8
Touchdowns825
Passing
Attempts441324
Completions278206
Completion %63.0%63.6%
Yards2,8932,391
Yards / Attempt6.67.4
Touchdowns1724
Interceptions207
Passer Rating121.79145.69
Total Offense
Plays768875
Yards3,8145,005
Yards / Play5.05.7
Yards / Game317.8417.1
Punt Returns
Returns1519
Yards124129
Average8.36.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3931
Yards899658
Average23.121.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6759
Yards2,5242,386
Average37.740.4
Interception Returns
Returns720
Yards38260
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles714
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties6666
Yards617582
Yards / Game51.448.5
Time of Possession
Per Game26:4433:15
Third Downs
Attempts170184
Conversions5885
Conversion %34.1%46.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1315
Conversions49
Conversion %30.8%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips2957
Scores (TD + FG)2245
Score %75.9%78.9%
Touchdowns1337
TD %44.8%64.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1918
Made1312
Pct68.4%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2651
Made2649
Pct100.0%96.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →