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NU
Northwestern
WildcatsBalancedBig Ten Conference1-11#122 (-6.89)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
10· FPer play
22· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
31· DPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.118
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.182
Defensive EPA/play
+0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.210
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.198
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.14
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.41
own return game
Return Defense
+0.43
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#120
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#50
recruiting 72 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense14th
Opp-adjusted defense34th
Offensive EPA/play10th
Defensive EPA/play32th
Offensive success rate20th
Explosiveness19th
Defensive havoc9th
Points per drive6th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate4952San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, run defense4413UTEP2018OA -0.153 / -0.123similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4214New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense4015Texas State2019OA -0.181 / -0.036similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, takeaway rate397
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Nebraska | 31-28 | W | +11.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Duke | 23-31 | L | -10.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Southern Illinois | 24-31 | L | -12.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Miami (OH) | 14-17 | L | -7.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 5 | @ Penn State | 7-17 | L | +25.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 6 | vs Wisconsin | 7-42 | L | +10.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Maryland | 24-31 | L | +13.5 | W | 50.75 | O |
| 9 | @ Iowa | 13-33 | L | +11.0 | L | 37.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Ohio State | 7-21 | L | +38.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Minnesota | 3-31 | L | +17.5 | L | 41 | U |
| 12 | @ Purdue | 9-17 | L | +19.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Illinois | 3-41 | L | +14.0 | L | 38 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.171 | 9th | +0.033 | 26th |
| Red Zone | -0.182 | 18th | +0.226 | 10th |
| Third Down | -0.108 | 19th | +0.114 | 36th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.187 | 10th | +0.024 | 33th |
| First Half | -0.152 | 15th | +0.071 | 20th |
| Second Half | -0.187 | 7th | -0.010 | 43th |
| Early Downs | -0.209 | 4th | +0.026 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | -0.168 | 14th | -0.029 | 55th |
| Standard Downs | -0.172 | 10th | +0.061 | 15th |
| Goal to Go | +0.069 | 68th | -0.013 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.1%Rush 52.9%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
14.1%
TO Margin
-1.5
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
335.4
Pts/Drive
1.14
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
24.2%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northwestern | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 165 | 340 |
| Points / Game | 13.8 | 28.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 228 | 244 |
| Rushing | 94 | 125 |
| Passing | 114 | 98 |
| Penalty | 20 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 469 | 497 |
| Yards | 1,501 | 2,296 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 125.1 | 191.3 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 417 | 312 |
| Completions | 245 | 185 |
| Completion % | 58.8% | 59.3% |
| Yards | 2,524 | 2,201 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.1 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 109.36 | 132.69 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 886 | 809 |
| Yards | 4,025 | 4,497 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 335.4 | 374.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 14 |
| Yards | 19 | 118 |
| Average | 2.4 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 20 |
| Yards | 184 | 297 |
| Average | 16.7 | 14.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 53 |
| Yards | 2,289 | 2,327 |
| Average | 39.5 | 43.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 17 |
| Yards | 33 | 248 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 11 |
| Lost | 13 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 55 | 57 |
| Yards | 490 | 520 |
| Yards / Game | 40.8 | 43.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:02 | 30:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 193 | 164 |
| Conversions | 72 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 37.3% | 42.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 17 |
| Conversions | 19 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 48.7% | 70.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 33 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 25 | 39 |
| Score % | 75.8% | 88.6% |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 30 |
| TD % | 54.5% | 68.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 22 |
| Made | 7 | 13 |
| Pct | 70.0% | 59.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 43 |
| Made | 18 | 43 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.