Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
SYR

Syracuse

OrangeBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#81 (-3.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
41· CRating
2· FPer play
8· FConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
27· DPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.108
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.211
Defensive EPA/play
+0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.1%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.251
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.088
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.43

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#129
model 48 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
recruiting 23 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
12th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
2th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
27th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2022OA -0.118 / -0.038similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate4952Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4883New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4764Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate4225Florida State2024OA -0.056 / -0.019similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense413

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tennessee26-45L+13.5L52O
2vs UConn27-20W-7.0P57U
3vs Colgate66-24W----
4@ Clemson34-21W+17.0W54.5O
5vs Duke3-38L+4.5L59.5U
6@ SMU18-31L+22.5W40.5O
8vs Pittsburgh13-30L+9.5L54.5U
9@ Georgia Tech16-41L+17.0L52.5O
10vs North Carolina10-27L----
11@ Miami10-38L+27.5L36.5O
13@ Notre Dame7-70L+65.5W71.5O
14vs Boston College12-34L+4.5L39.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off10thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off16thPass Def10thRush Def36thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1385th+0.06421th
Red Zone-0.09529th+0.14320th
Third Down-0.14016th+0.2978th
No Garbage Time-0.2052th+0.03229th
First Half-0.2162th+0.02634th
Second Half-0.05828th+0.10112th
Early Downs-0.09613th+0.03323th
Passing Downs-0.19813th+0.14410th
Standard Downs-0.10610th+0.02636th
Goal to Go-0.11532th-0.06556th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
340.4
Pts/Drive
1.43
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
26.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points242419
Points / Game20.234.9
First Downs
Total233262
Rushing97109
Passing115129
Penalty2124
Rushing
Attempts435398
Yards1,4782,099
Yards / Carry3.45.3
Yards / Game123.2174.9
Touchdowns1224
Passing
Attempts409391
Completions231259
Completion %56.5%66.2%
Yards2,6073,033
Yards / Attempt6.47.8
Touchdowns1723
Interceptions155
Passer Rating116.40148.25
Total Offense
Plays844789
Yards4,0855,132
Yards / Play4.86.5
Yards / Game340.4427.7
Punt Returns
Returns1016
Yards58151
Average5.89.4
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns2610
Yards514199
Average19.819.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6248
Yards2,8592,067
Average46.143.1
Interception Returns
Returns515
Yards61267
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles158
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties7473
Yards657667
Yards / Game54.855.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:31
Third Downs
Attempts170152
Conversions6062
Conversion %35.3%40.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3220
Conversions1510
Conversion %46.9%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3945
Scores (TD + FG)3141
Score %79.5%91.1%
Touchdowns2128
TD %53.8%62.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1420
Made1216
Pct85.7%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2253
Made2253
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts80
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →