Fourth Down Data
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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference2-10#94 (-3.15)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
4· FPer play
4· FConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
22· DPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.174
Defensive EPA/play
+0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.3%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.234
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.36

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#94
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#93
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 76 spots higher
33 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
8th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
4th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
2th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4762Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense4133Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate4064Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate4005Oklahoma State2025OA -0.103 / -0.061similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA399

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Georgia Tech21-24L-10.5L55.5U
1vs Boston College13-28L-16.5L50U
3vs Memphis12-20L-6.5L53.5U
4vs California14-9W-2.5W44.5U
5@ SMU16-42L+6.5L48O
6vs Clemson13-29L+14.5L46.5U
8@ Duke16-23L----
9@ Miami14-36L+21.0L54.5U
10vs North Carolina11-35L+2.5L51U
11@ Notre Dame3-52L+25.5L42.5O
13vs Charleston Southern41-7W-33.5W44.5O
14vs Florida11-31L+15.0L45.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS0-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off5thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off6thPass Def8thRush Def46thRed Zone Def51th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1774th+0.06919th
Red Zone-0.17516th-0.00951th
Third Down-0.2186th+0.30510th
No Garbage Time-0.1833th+0.06224th
First Half-0.2312th+0.03431th
Second Half-0.1238th+0.10616th
Early Downs-0.1626th+0.00436th
Passing Downs-0.2048th+0.1888th
Standard Downs-0.1585th+0.00046th
Goal to Go-0.25114th-0.05360th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.4%Rush 51.6%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
270.3
Pts/Drive
1.36
3rd Down%
28.8%
3&Out%
27.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points185336
Points / Game15.428.0
First Downs
Total182251
Rushing64116
Passing103110
Penalty1525
Rushing
Attempts378477
Yards1,0792,216
Yards / Carry2.94.6
Yards / Game89.9184.7
Touchdowns821
Passing
Attempts355326
Completions179204
Completion %50.4%62.6%
Yards2,1642,415
Yards / Attempt6.17.4
Touchdowns1116
Interceptions134
Passer Rating104.53138.55
Total Offense
Plays733803
Yards3,2434,631
Yards / Play4.45.8
Yards / Game270.3385.9
Punt Returns
Returns1528
Yards23164
Average1.55.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns257
Yards541178
Average21.625.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5746
Yards2,7711,986
Average48.643.2
Interception Returns
Returns413
Yards69334
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles229
Lost92
Penalties
Penalties6757
Yards575526
Yards / Game47.943.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1132:49
Third Downs
Attempts160171
Conversions4676
Conversion %28.7%44.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3217
Conversions2011
Conversion %62.5%64.7%
Red Zone
Trips2751
Scores (TD + FG)2341
Score %85.2%80.4%
Touchdowns1429
TD %51.9%56.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1530
Made1419
Pct93.3%63.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1539
Made1539
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts51
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →