Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
OKST

Oklahoma State

CowboysBalanced
Big 12 Conference1-11#101 (-8.59)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
5· FPer play
12· FConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
17· DPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.061
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.163
Defensive EPA/play
+0.082
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.6%
Def Success Rate
48.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.246
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.28

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.73
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#134
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
recruiting 43 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
14th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
5th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
5th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4552Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4353Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4154Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate4065Florida State2024OA -0.056 / -0.019similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA399

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UT Martin27-7W----
2@ Oregon3-69L+52.5L68.5O
4vs Tulsa12-19L----
5vs Baylor27-45L+21.5W80.5U
6@ Arizona13-41L+35.5W51.5O
7vs Houston17-39L+14.5L48.5O
8vs Cincinnati17-49L+24.0L58O
9@ Texas Tech0-42L+42.0P55.5U
10@ Kansas21-38L+20.0W45.5O
12vs Kansas State6-14L+19.5W50.5U
13@ UCF14-17L+4.5W37.5U
14vs Iowa State13-20L+13.5W46.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
PWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off1thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off59thPass Def37thRush Def15thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1752th+0.05924th
Red Zone+0.08767th+0.2417th
Third Down+0.12559th+0.13533th
No Garbage Time-0.1704th+0.09015th
First Half-0.09919th+0.1574th
Second Half-0.2671th-0.04362th
Early Downs-0.2011th+0.03224th
Passing Downs-0.10725th+0.01937th
Standard Downs-0.2201th+0.07915th
Goal to Go+0.10964th+0.3715th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
292.4
Pts/Drive
1.28
3rd Down%
34.8%
3&Out%
32.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahoma StateOpponents
Scoring
Points170400
Points / Game14.233.3
First Downs
Total187254
Rushing76103
Passing95128
Penalty1623
Rushing
Attempts404458
Yards1,4201,991
Yards / Carry3.54.3
Yards / Game118.3165.9
Touchdowns1018
Passing
Attempts366340
Completions210223
Completion %57.4%65.6%
Yards2,0893,029
Yards / Attempt5.78.9
Touchdowns728
Interceptions106
Passer Rating106.17164.07
Total Offense
Plays770798
Yards3,5095,020
Yards / Play4.66.3
Yards / Game292.4418.3
Punt Returns
Returns1924
Yards75150
Average3.96.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1620
Yards248418
Average15.520.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6646
Yards3,0271,880
Average45.940.9
Interception Returns
Returns610
Yards89208
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles2018
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties6366
Yards568564
Yards / Game47.347.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5430:36
Third Downs
Attempts178165
Conversions6272
Conversion %34.8%43.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2422
Conversions1018
Conversion %41.7%81.8%
Red Zone
Trips2839
Scores (TD + FG)2137
Score %75.0%94.9%
Touchdowns1428
TD %50.0%71.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1515
Pct75.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1748
Made1747
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →