Fourth Down Data
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IU

Indiana

HoosiersBalanced
Big Ten Conference2-10#119 (-7.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
13· FRating
6· FPer play
10· FConsistency
6· FBig plays
Defense
23· DRating
28· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.175
Defensive EPA/play
+0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.1%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.220
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.092
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.55
own return game
Return Defense
-0.94
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#119
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#91
market 28 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 73 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Indiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
6th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
6th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
6th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4882Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4403Oklahoma State2025OA -0.103 / -0.061similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4344Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate4335Akron2019OA -0.284 / -0.080similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA431

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Iowa6-34L+3.3L45.5U
2vs Idaho56-14W-32.5W--
3vs Cincinnati24-38L+4.0L49.5O
4@ Western Kentucky33-31W-16.0L--
5@ Penn State0-24L+12.5L53.5U
7vs Michigan State15-20L+4.5L48.5U
8vs Ohio State7-54L+21.0L60.5O
9@ Maryland35-38L+5.5W49.5O
10@ Michigan7-29L+19.0L50.5U
11vs Rutgers3-38L-7.0L42.5U
12vs Minnesota14-35L+7.0L43.5O
13@ Purdue7-44L+15.0L50.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
5-5
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS1-8
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off16thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off29thPass Def26thRush Def33thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1587th+0.04825th
Red Zone-0.15124th+0.2088th
Third Down-0.01929th-0.01768th
No Garbage Time-0.1775th+0.06523th
First Half-0.1759th+0.02238th
Second Half-0.13811th+0.07220th
Early Downs-0.1636th+0.06217th
Passing Downs-0.2535th+0.08126th
Standard Downs-0.10216th+0.03133th
Goal to Go-0.07745th+0.4653th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.7%Rush 52.3%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
11.1
Yards/Game
289.7
Pts/Drive
1.34
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
30.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Indiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIndianaOpponents
Scoring
Points207399
Points / Game17.333.3
First Downs
Total206250
Rushing87100
Passing96132
Penalty2318
Rushing
Attempts428433
Yards1,3701,777
Yards / Carry3.24.1
Yards / Game114.2148.1
Touchdowns1323
Passing
Attempts390385
Completions199240
Completion %51.0%62.3%
Yards2,1062,828
Yards / Attempt5.47.3
Touchdowns924
Interceptions155
Passer Rating96.31142.01
Total Offense
Plays818818
Yards3,4764,605
Yards / Play4.25.6
Yards / Game289.7383.8
Punt Returns
Returns1420
Yards156158
Average11.17.9
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2116
Yards424443
Average20.227.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7063
Yards2,9272,683
Average41.842.6
Interception Returns
Returns515
Yards42229
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles167
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties5679
Yards512658
Yards / Game42.754.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4930:11
Third Downs
Attempts187155
Conversions6957
Conversion %36.9%36.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2215
Conversions1110
Conversion %50.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3555
Scores (TD + FG)2750
Score %77.1%90.9%
Touchdowns1939
TD %54.3%70.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1816
Made1314
Pct72.2%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2249
Made2247
Pct100.0%95.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →